Water GenbuTier 2
at 台中 Regional
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.2% | 4 | 0-3-1 | 12.5% | 31.2% | 35.5% | -9.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.9% | 8 | 3-5-0 | 37.5% | 41.7% | 44.4% | -2.7 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 6.5% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 60.1% | +6.5 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.9% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.7% | +1.7 |
| Fire Suited | 5.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.4% | -3.5 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.8% | -8.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.4% | +6.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.7% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 38.8% | -8.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.0% | +20.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +10.9 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.6% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 58.2% | +6.1 |
| Water Fractal | 3.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.3% | -11.2 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.1% | +5.0 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.5% | +2.4 |
| Wind Allies | 3.0% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 42.7% | -5.4 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.4% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 60.9% | +8.1 |
| Slimes | 1.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.2% | +13.6 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.1% | -22.3 |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.1% | +21.0 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.4% | +7.1 |
| Fire Exia | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Genbu | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.2% | +6.7 |
| Water Beast | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.5% | +7.2 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.3% | -9.1 |
| Water Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.1% | -9.5 |
| Wind Arcane | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 7 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 21 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 21 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primordial Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Pelagic Fatestone | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resonating Fugue | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Acquiescing Rejection | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Idle Thoughts | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Carpsong Coda | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Strategem of Myriad Ice | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Conniving Plans | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tabula of Salvage | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lightweaver's Assault | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Refracting Missile | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tidal Lock | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |