Water Ravishing MillTier 2
at 台中 Regional
decks
1
(0.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
1-2-1
overall winrate
37.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
38.3%
avg ELO -7.5 per match
expected value
48.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1401
· median 1401
· range 1401–1401
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
945
Q1 1203
Q3 1401
1694
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +9.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.6% | -21.5 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.6 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Genbu | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.4% | -5.8 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Ravishing Mill decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
