Fire Umbra GuardianTier 2
at 台中 Regional
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.2% | 3 | 1-0-2 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 61.8% | +8.8 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.9% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 45.1% | -3.2 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 6.5% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 61.9% | +7.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.4% | +23.0 |
| Fire Suited | 5.3% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 59.5% | +9.1 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 5.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 67.7% | +17.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.7% | 5 | 5-0-0 | 100.0% | 77.8% | 75.8% | +14.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.5% | -2.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.9% | -16.1 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +8.1 |
| Water Fractal | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.0% | -17.5 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.6 |
| Slimes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.6 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Genbu | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.1% | +22.6 |
| Fire Oblation | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.5 |
| Wind Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.9% | -5.0 |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin, Volda, Smolder's Spite, Vigil Rempart. Losers more often ran: Stalwart Shieldmate, Crystallized Destiny, Nocturne's Oblivion.
Show all 46 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 37 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spirelle, Schwartz Queen | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Heavy Swing | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Volda, Smolder's Spite | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Conflagrative Trounce | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Ombreux Chevalier | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nascent Blast | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Devouring Malice | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Fiery Interference | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vigil Rempart | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reckoning's Wake | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Beguiling Coup | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nocturne's Oblivion | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sovereign Sanctuary | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rictus Tiding | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Extorting Blackjack | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Immolation Trap | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Overpowering Defense | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Flamme Sorcel | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Consumption Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lamentation's Toll | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Four of Spades | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Profane Bindings | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |