Fire SuzakuTier 2
at 台中 Regional
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.2% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 46.6% | -2.2 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.9% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 47.3% | -1.6 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 6.5% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 53.1% | +2.3 |
| Fire Suited | 5.3% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.3% | +0.2 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 5.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 58.8% | +6.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +8.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.1% | -2.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.1% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.0% | -0.6 |
| Water Genbu | 4.1% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.3% | -1.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.1% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 59.3% | +8.9 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.5% | -8.8 |
| Water Fractal | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.5% | +10.4 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.0% | -2.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.0% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 34.1% | -11.9 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.6% | -23.0 |
| Wind Allies | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.8 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.2% | -15.7 |
| Water Allies | 2.4% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 61.5% | +8.6 |
| Slimes | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.7% | +4.3 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.8% | +6.1 |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.9% | +19.0 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 33.6% | -26.3 |
| Fire Exia | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.0% | -20.7 |
| Fire Genbu | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +11.9 |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.3% | +6.9 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.5% | -8.8 |
| Wind Arcane | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.8% | +9.3 |
| Wind Diana | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.7% | -3.6 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.6% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 36.6% | -10.0 |
Decklists · 10 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 42 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 42 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heated Vengeance | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Demolition | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Dire Requiem | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Expose Darkness | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fatestone of Unrelenting | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Ignite Fate | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Three of Hearts | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Peppered Chef | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Vengeful Paramour | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hulao Gate, Sun's Ascent | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bestial Frenzy | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Lavaplume Fatestone | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shatter the Brittle | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Immolation Trap | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Blessed Scion | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fiery Interference | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Baby Red Slime | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flamebreak Chorus | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignis Deus | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Suzaku's Command | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |