Wind ShadowstrikeTier 2

at 台中 Regional

decks

19 (11.2% of field)

matches (non-mirror)

91 30-49-12

overall winrate

39.6%

ELO-adjusted winrate

45.1% avg ELO -1.7 per match

expected value

44.8% share-weighted (raw)

EV (ELO-adj)

47.4% share-weighted (skill-controlled)

Pilot Skill ↓ low

mean ELO 1241 · median 1231 · range 1062–1539 (19 pilots with an ELO rating)

945 Q1 1203 Q3 1401 1694

5% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 47% in the bottom. This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.

Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent	Their share	Matches	W-L-D	Raw WR	Shrunk WR	Adj WR	ELO Δ/match
Fire Crux Lorraine	8.9%	8	0-8-0	0.0%	16.7%	28.3%	-10.4
Wind Crux Lorraine	6.5%	3	0-3-0	0.0%	28.6%	41.4%	-6.4
Fire Suzaku	5.9%	4	2-1-1	62.5%	56.2%	53.4%	+2.2
Fire Suited	5.3%	6	4-2-0	66.7%	60.0%	58.5%	+4.5
Water Umbra Guardian	5.3%	6	2-4-0	33.3%	40.0%	45.8%	-2.3
Fire Luxem Assassin	4.7%	9	2-6-1	27.8%	34.6%	40.8%	-4.3
Wind Astra Cleric	4.7%	6	1-3-2	33.3%	40.0%	42.4%	-4.1
Fire Aggro	4.1%	4	2-2-0	50.0%	50.0%	50.6%	+0.4
Water Genbu	4.1%	4	3-0-1	87.5%	68.8%	64.5%	+9.3
Wind Seiryuu	4.1%	5	2-2-1	50.0%	50.0%	51.0%	+0.6
Water Aetherwing	3.6%	1	1-0-0	100.0%	60.0%	54.2%	+6.7
Water Fractal	3.6%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Wind Wakeup Combo	3.6%	2	1-1-0	50.0%	50.0%	52.2%	+2.1
Fire Crux Mage	3.0%	3	2-1-0	66.7%	57.1%	55.2%	+3.9
Fire Umbra Guardian	3.0%	3	0-1-2	33.3%	42.9%	38.2%	-8.8
Wind Allies	3.0%	2	2-0-0	100.0%	66.7%	66.8%	+16.1
Fire Firebloom Burn	2.4%	5	2-3-0	40.0%	44.4%	49.5%	-0.3
Water Allies	2.4%	1	0-1-0	0.0%	40.0%	37.3%	-20.3
Slimes	1.2%	1	0-1-0	0.0%	40.0%	40.2%	-15.7
Water Astra Ranger	1.2%	5	0-2-3	30.0%	38.9%	34.2%	-9.1
Water Tera Mage	1.2%	2	1-1-0	50.0%	50.0%	50.8%	+0.7
Wind Luxem Zander	1.2%	1	0-0-1	50.0%	50.0%	56.4%	+10.3
Fire Aetherwing	0.6%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Fire Exia	0.6%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Fire Genbu	0.6%	1	0-1-0	0.0%	40.0%	47.1%	-4.6
Fire Oblation	0.6%	1	0-1-0	0.0%	40.0%	42.4%	-12.2
Fire Tera Mage	0.6%	1	0-1-0	0.0%	40.0%	41.0%	-14.4
Fire Umbra Ciel	0.6%	1	1-0-0	100.0%	60.0%	59.1%	+14.5
Water Beast	0.6%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Water Crux Lorraine	0.6%	3	1-2-0	33.3%	42.9%	55.3%	+4.0
Water Neos	0.6%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Water Ravishing Mill	0.6%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Water Umbra Ranger	0.6%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Wind Arcane	0.6%	1	1-0-0	100.0%	60.0%	54.5%	+7.2
Wind Diana	0.6%	1	0-1-0	0.0%	40.0%	47.8%	-3.5
Wind Slice & Dice	0.6%	1	0-1-0	0.0%	40.0%	46.7%	-5.2

Decklists · 19 from this event

The 19 public Wind Shadowstrike decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 3 mirror matches (4 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

Winners more often ran: Penumbral Waltz, Aesan Protector. Losers more often ran: Resolute Stand, Safeguard Amulet, Mastermind Scheme.

↑ Played more by winners

Penumbral Waltz

Winning decks ran 1.7 copies on average, losing decks 0.0.

Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 0.

Aesan Protector

Winning decks ran 3.0 copies on average, losing decks 2.7.

Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 2, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.

↓ Played more by losers