Water Astra RangerTier 2
at 台中 Regional
decks
2
(1.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
14
4-6-4
overall winrate
42.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.6%
avg ELO +1.9 per match
expected value
49.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1120
· median 1120
· range 1069–1170
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
945
Q1 1203
Q3 1401
1694
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.2% | 5 | 2-0-3 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 65.8% | +9.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.9% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 48.1% | -1.8 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.2% | -6.1 |
| Fire Suited | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.9% | +22.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.4% | -9.0 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.5 |
| Water Fractal | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.7% | +20.3 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.8% | -16.4 |
| Water Allies | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.2% | -10.9 |
| Fire Exia | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Genbu | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
