Fire Luxem AssassinTier 2
at 台中 Regional
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.2% | 9 | 6-2-1 | 72.2% | 65.4% | 59.2% | +4.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.9% | 7 | 2-3-2 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 49.5% | -0.2 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 6.5% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.5% | +4.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.4% | -8.9 |
| Fire Suited | 5.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 28.2% | -20.9 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.8% | +20.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.7% | 6 | 3-1-2 | 66.7% | 60.0% | 53.7% | +2.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.8% | +15.7 |
| Water Genbu | 4.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.6% | -6.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.1% | -2.8 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.8% | -4.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.0% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.3% | +0.2 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.0% | 5 | 0-5-0 | 0.0% | 22.2% | 24.2% | -14.9 |
| Wind Allies | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.3% | -9.1 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 32.0% | -17.3 |
| Slimes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.0 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.1 |
| Fire Genbu | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.5% | -10.4 |
| Fire Oblation | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 0.6% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 50.2% | +0.2 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.8% | -9.9 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 8 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 11 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 11 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annul Spell | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Uncover the Plot | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Yuan Shao, Crown General | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sovereign Sanctuary | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Excalibur, Cleansing Light | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vanish from Sight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Thieving Cut | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Juggle Knives | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |