Water Umbra GuardianTier 1
at 台中 Regional
decks
9
(5.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
57
27-27-3
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
44.8%
avg ELO -1.8 per match
expected value
49.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1341
· median 1319
· range 1212–1474
(9 pilots with an ELO rating)
945
Q1 1203
Q3 1401
1694
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.2% | 6 | 4-2-0 | 66.7% | 60.0% | 54.2% | +2.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.9% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 38.7% | -8.4 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 6.5% | 7 | 4-2-1 | 64.3% | 59.1% | 68.5% | +9.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.9% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 41.2% | -6.6 |
| Fire Suited | 5.3% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 39.3% | -6.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.2% | -20.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.7% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 49.4% | -0.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.1% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 50.4% | +0.3 |
| Water Genbu | 4.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.2% | +8.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.4% | -5.3 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.6% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.2% | -3.6 |
| Water Fractal | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.4% | -11.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.0% | +6.4 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 32.3% | -17.0 |
| Wind Allies | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.9% | -11.4 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +9.0 |
| Water Allies | 2.4% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 48.9% | -0.8 |
| Slimes | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.4 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.2% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 39.9% | -7.5 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.4% | -7.4 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.9 |
| Fire Exia | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Genbu | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.5% | +7.2 |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -12.1 |
| Wind Arcane | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.0% | -9.5 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
