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Wind Crux LorraineTier 1

at 台中 Regional

decks
11 (6.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
71 35-27-9
overall winrate
55.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.3% avg ELO -0.9 per match
expected value
54.0% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.7% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1360 · median 1389 · range 1148–1536 (11 pilots with an ELO rating)
945 Q1 1203 Q3 1401 1694
45% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 18% in the bottom. This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Wind Shadowstrike 11.2% 3 3-0-0 100.0% 71.4% 58.6% +6.4
Fire Crux Lorraine 8.9% 8 5-3-0 62.5% 58.3% 49.0% -0.5
Fire Suzaku 5.9% 3 1-2-0 33.3% 42.9% 46.9% -2.3
Fire Suited 5.3% 6 4-2-0 66.7% 60.0% 52.3% +1.2
Water Umbra Guardian 5.3% 7 2-4-1 35.7% 40.9% 31.5% -9.3
Fire Luxem Assassin 4.7% 3 1-1-1 50.0% 50.0% 43.5% -4.8
Wind Astra Cleric 4.7% 3 1-1-1 50.0% 50.0% 40.6% -7.0
Fire Aggro 4.1% 5 1-3-1 30.0% 38.9% 44.4% -3.2
Water Genbu 4.1% 4 1-2-1 37.5% 43.8% 39.9% -6.5
Wind Seiryuu 4.1% 3 2-1-0 66.7% 57.1% 49.9% -0.1
Water Aetherwing 3.6% 0
Water Fractal 3.6% 7 3-2-2 57.1% 54.5% 56.2% +3.1
Wind Wakeup Combo 3.6% 3 3-0-0 100.0% 71.4% 65.5% +11.6
Fire Crux Mage 3.0% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 38.5% -18.3
Fire Umbra Guardian 3.0% 4 1-2-1 37.5% 43.8% 38.1% -7.6
Wind Allies 3.0% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 50.7% +0.6
Fire Firebloom Burn 2.4% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 60.3% +9.9
Water Allies 2.4% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 57.3% +11.6
Slimes 1.2% 0
Water Astra Ranger 1.2% 0
Water Tera Mage 1.2% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 42.4% -12.1
Wind Luxem Zander 1.2% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 41.3% -13.9
Fire Aetherwing 0.6% 0
Fire Exia 0.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 52.5% +4.1
Fire Genbu 0.6% 0
Fire Oblation 0.6% 0
Fire Tera Mage 0.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 55.3% +8.4
Fire Umbra Ciel 0.6% 0
Water Beast 0.6% 0
Water Crux Lorraine 0.6% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 54.9% +7.8
Water Neos 0.6% 0
Water Ravishing Mill 0.6% 0
Water Umbra Ranger 0.6% 0
Wind Arcane 0.6% 0
Wind Diana 0.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 67.3% +27.6
Wind Slice & Dice 0.6% 0
Decklists · 11 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 3 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

Winners more often ran: Regal Inquisition.

Played more by winners
Regal Inquisition
Winning decks ran 2.7 copies on average, losing decks 1.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 0.
Played more by losers

No cards correlated with losing.

Show all 44 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 43 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Regal Inquisition +1.00 3 0 0
Cleansing Reunion -0.67 0 2 0
Lorraine, Spirit Ruler +0.67 2 0 1
Heavenly Guide +0.67 2 0 0
Verdigris Decree +0.67 2 0 0
Crystallized Destiny +0.67 2 0 1
Incapacitate +0.67 2 0 1
Lorraine, Crux Knight -0.67 0 2 0
Staggering Strike -0.67 0 2 0
Four of Spades +0.67 2 0 1
Zephyr -0.67 0 2 0
Annul Spell -0.67 0 2 0
Zhang Jiao, Way of Peace -0.67 0 2 0
Cry for Help -0.33 0 1 2
Hurricane Sweep +0.33 1 0 2
Favorable Winds +0.33 1 0 2
Turbo Charge +0.33 1 0 2
Spirit Blade: Ascension +0.33 1 0 1
Longtail Grovesward +0.33 1 0 1
Rose, Eternal Paragon +0.33 1 0 2
Dungeon Guide +0.33 1 0 2
Grand Crusader's Ring +0.33 1 0 2
Fluffy Shopkeep +0.33 1 0 2
Guan Yu, Prime Exemplar +0.33 1 0 1
Nullifying Lantern +0.33 1 0 2
Swift Recruit -0.33 0 1 0
Phalanx Captain -0.33 0 1 0
Brisk Windtrotter -0.33 0 1 0
Nullifying Mirror -0.33 0 1 1
Dream Fairy -0.33 0 1 2
Academy Guide -0.33 0 1 0
Prismatic Edge +0.33 1 0 1
Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin -0.33 0 1 0
Sword of Shadows -0.33 0 1 0
Ensnaring Fumes +0.33 1 0 0
Inert Sword -0.33 0 1 0
The Looking Glass -0.33 0 1 0
Escape the Wreckage -0.33 0 1 0
Rally the Peasants +0.33 1 0 0
Expeditious Opening -0.33 0 1 0
Nefarious Timepiece +0.33 1 0 0
Veiling Breeze +0.00 1 1 1
Viridian Protective Trinket +0.00 1 1 0
Tempest Downfall +0.00 1 1 1

JSON: /api/events/35157/archetypes/Wind Crux Lorraine