Fire SuitedTier 2
at 台中 Regional
decks
9
(5.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
61
23-30-8
overall winrate
44.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.4%
avg ELO -0.2 per match
expected value
46.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1238
· median 1271
· range 974–1387
(9 pilots with an ELO rating)
945
Q1 1203
Q3 1401
1694
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.2% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 41.5% | -4.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.9% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.3% | +4.0 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 6.5% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 47.7% | -1.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.9% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.7% | -0.2 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 5.3% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 60.7% | +6.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 71.8% | +20.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.7% | 3 | 0-0-3 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.6% | +0.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.6% | +3.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.1% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 40.3% | -6.2 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.6% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 40.9% | -8.7 |
| Water Fractal | 3.6% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 44.3% | -5.5 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.6% | 4 | 0-3-1 | 12.5% | 31.2% | 34.0% | -10.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.0% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 34.9% | -11.3 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.0% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 40.5% | -9.1 |
| Wind Allies | 3.0% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.7% | +2.7 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.6 |
| Water Allies | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Genbu | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 0.6% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 57.5% | +5.6 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +10.0 |
| Wind Diana | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.8% | +22.2 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 9 from this event
The 9 public Fire Suited decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
