← Ascent Auckland Path of Steel 2025
Fire Crux LorraineTier 1
at Ascent Auckland Path of Steel 2025
decks
11
(8.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
96
61-32-3
overall winrate
65.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
55.3%
avg ELO +1.8 per match
expected value
56.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1548
· median 1577
· range 1367–1689
(11 pilots with an ELO rating)
978
Q1 1244
Q3 1474
1702
73% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Razorgale | 9.5% | 16 | 7-8-1 | 46.9% | 47.5% | 45.9% | -1.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.7% | 7 | 5-2-0 | 71.4% | 63.6% | 53.4% | +1.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.9% | 6 | 4-1-1 | 75.0% | 65.0% | 51.7% | +0.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.1% | 8 | 1-7-0 | 12.5% | 25.0% | 25.5% | -11.8 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 6.3% | 4 | 0-3-1 | 12.5% | 31.2% | 22.8% | -17.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.6% | 10 | 9-1-0 | 90.0% | 78.6% | 76.2% | +11.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.6% | 6 | 5-1-0 | 83.3% | 70.0% | 68.5% | +9.9 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 4.0% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.2% | +2.2 |
| Water Allies | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +9.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.0% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 68.1% | +11.6 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.2% | 7 | 6-1-0 | 85.7% | 72.7% | 56.2% | +3.1 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.4% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 63.3% | +9.9 |
| Fire Suited | 2.4% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 46.1% | -2.9 |
| Water Fractal | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +14.0 |
| Water Genbu | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.6% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 65.3% | +9.8 |
| Fire Exia | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.3% | -20.3 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.2% | +5.2 |
| Fire Slimes | 0.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.2% | -6.5 |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.3% | -23.5 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.9% | +7.8 |
| Slimes | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.8 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.7 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.5% | +16.8 |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.0% | +6.4 |
Decklists · 11 from this event
The 11 public Fire Crux Lorraine decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 9 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Turbo Charge, Rending Flames, Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin. Losers more often ran: Flame Sweep, Under Fire, Undying Dreams.
Turbo Charge
Winning decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
losing decks 0.9.
Of 9 mirrors: the winner ran more in
6, the loser ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 0.
Rending Flames
Winning decks ran 2.8
copies on average,
losing decks 2.4.
Of 9 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 2.
Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin
Winning decks ran 1.4
copies on average,
losing decks 1.4.
Of 9 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 1.
Nullifying Lantern
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.6.
Of 9 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 3.
Staggering Strike
Winning decks ran 1.3
copies on average,
losing decks 1.1.
Of 9 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 1.
Hone by Fire
Winning decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
losing decks 1.0.
Of 9 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 5.
Flame Sweep
Losing decks ran 3.9
copies on average,
winning decks 3.6.
Of 9 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 6.
Under Fire
Losing decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 9 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 5.
Undying Dreams
Losing decks ran 3.6
copies on average,
winning decks 2.7.
Of 9 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 5.
Sword of Seeking
Losing decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
winning decks 0.7.
Of 9 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 5.
Blanche, Sheltering Saint
Losing decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
winning decks 0.6.
Of 9 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 3.
Fluffy Shopkeep
Losing decks ran 3.9
copies on average,
winning decks 3.7.
Of 9 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 5.
Show all 38 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 18 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flame Sweep | -0.33 | 0 | 3 | 6 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.33 | 6 | 3 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.33 | 5 | 2 | 2 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +0.22 | 5 | 3 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | -0.22 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | -0.22 | 1 | 3 | 5 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -0.22 | 1 | 3 | 5 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.22 | 2 | 4 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -0.22 | 1 | 3 | 5 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | -0.22 | 2 | 4 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.22 | 4 | 2 | 3 | |
| Crux Sight | -0.22 | 1 | 3 | 3 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | -0.22 | 0 | 2 | 7 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.22 | 5 | 3 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | +0.22 | 3 | 1 | 2 | |
| Sword Saint's Vow | +0.22 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tempered Steel | +0.22 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.11 | 3 | 2 | 4 | |
| Surreptitious Scheme | -0.11 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.11 | 3 | 2 | 4 | |
| Spurn to Ash | -0.11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Yuan Shao, Crown General | +0.11 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | -0.11 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.11 | 3 | 2 | 4 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.11 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | -0.11 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |
| Drawn Blade | +0.11 | 3 | 2 | 2 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.11 | 3 | 4 | 0 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | -0.11 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.11 | 4 | 3 | 0 | |
| Varuck, Smoldering Spire | -0.11 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.11 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 3 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |
| Smoke Out | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |
| Flamewreath Call | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 |