← Ascent Auckland Path of Steel 2025
Wind RazorgaleTier 1
at Ascent Auckland Path of Steel 2025
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.7% | 16 | 8-7-1 | 53.1% | 52.5% | 54.1% | +1.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.7% | 9 | 5-4-0 | 55.6% | 53.8% | 56.7% | +3.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.9% | 16 | 5-10-1 | 34.4% | 37.5% | 28.2% | -8.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.1% | 9 | 5-3-1 | 61.1% | 57.7% | 60.6% | +4.9 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 6.3% | 11 | 7-2-2 | 72.7% | 66.7% | 69.2% | +8.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.6% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 46.9% | -2.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.6% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 51.3% | +0.9 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 4.0% | 7 | 2-2-3 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.5% | -3.8 |
| Water Allies | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.1% | +19.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.0% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 55.6% | +3.2 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.2% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 56.0% | +3.8 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 66.4% | +26.2 |
| Fire Suited | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.8% | +2.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 33.4% | -26.6 |
| Water Genbu | 1.6% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 54.8% | +4.6 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.7% | +6.4 |
| Wind Allies | 1.6% | 4 | 3-0-1 | 87.5% | 68.8% | 72.1% | +14.1 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 0.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.9% | -5.0 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.6 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.3% | -20.4 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.2% | +6.8 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.2 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.8% | +15.7 |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.5 |
Decklists · 12 from this event
The 12 public Wind Razorgale decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 4 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Fluffy Shopkeep, Crimson Protective Trinket.
No cards correlated with losing.
Show all 36 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 34 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reclaim | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Longtail Grovesward | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Veiling Breeze | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Stifling Trap | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Favorable Winds | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Arrow Trap | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Zephyr | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Acolyte of Cultivation | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Aesan Protector | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Scout the Land | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Yuan Shao, Crown General | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Usurp the Winds | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Ardent Cloudstriker | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Innervate Agility | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Expeditious Opening | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Rictus Tiding | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fan of Seven Debts | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Eternal Magistrate | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Art of War | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Cleansing Reunion | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Displace | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zhang Jiao, Way of Peace | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cry for Help | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 |