← Ascent Auckland Path of Steel 2025
Water Umbra GuardianTier 2
at Ascent Auckland Path of Steel 2025
decks
2
(1.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
15
4-10-1
overall winrate
30.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
30.8%
avg ELO -7.8 per match
expected value
48.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1311
· median 1311
· range 1120–1502
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
978
Q1 1244
Q3 1474
1702
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Razorgale | 9.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.3% | -6.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.6% | -2.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.6% | +10.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.1% | -9.4 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 6.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.1% | -9.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 4.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.8 |
| Water Allies | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 1.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Wind Allies | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.8% | -6.8 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.7% | -19.7 |
| Slimes | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.6% | -23.0 |
| Wind Exia | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 33.8% | -25.9 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.2% | -17.3 |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
