← Ascent Auckland Path of Steel 2025
Wind SeiryuuTier 1
at Ascent Auckland Path of Steel 2025
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Razorgale | 9.5% | 9 | 3-5-1 | 38.9% | 42.3% | 39.4% | -4.9 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.7% | 8 | 7-1-0 | 87.5% | 75.0% | 74.5% | +11.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.7% | 14 | 3-6-5 | 39.3% | 41.7% | 30.1% | -8.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.9% | 10 | 3-3-4 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.7% | -1.9 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 6.3% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.6% | -0.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.0% | -2.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.6% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 64.1% | +8.1 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 4.0% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.5% | -3.8 |
| Water Allies | 4.0% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 54.6% | +2.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.0% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 52.1% | +1.3 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.2 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.4 |
| Fire Suited | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 1.6% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 56.2% | +4.7 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.9% | +9.4 |
| Wind Allies | 1.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 67.2% | +16.5 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.0% | +24.1 |
| Fire Exia | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.0% | +8.0 |
| Fire Oblation | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 0.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.3% | +0.4 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.8% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 36.4% | -10.2 |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 9 from this event
The 9 public Wind Seiryuu decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 39 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 39 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Aesan Protector | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Longtail Grovesward | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Displace | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Beseech the Winds | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Trained Hawk | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Byakko's Command | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seiryuu's Command | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Beseeched Fatestone | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Candlelight Hourglass | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Veiling Breeze | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Stifling Trap | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Cry for Help | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Noble Dissolution | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Brisk Windtrotter | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Zephyr | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Innervate Agility | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Pride's Vanguard | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shimmercloak Assassin | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Eternal Magistrate | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bestial Frenzy | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spellward Scepter | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reclaim | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |