← Ascent Auckland Path of Steel 2025
Wind Crux LorraineTier 2
at Ascent Auckland Path of Steel 2025
decks
2
(1.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
20
10-9-1
overall winrate
52.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
40.8%
avg ELO -3.5 per match
expected value
45.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
42.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1535
· median 1535
· range 1533–1536
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
978
Q1 1244
Q3 1474
1702
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Razorgale | 9.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.7% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 34.7% | -9.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.7% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 39.5% | -10.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.0% | -24.1 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 6.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.4% | -17.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.5% | -16.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.6% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 49.1% | -0.7 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.2 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 32.5% | -28.0 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.9% | +4.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.6% | +20.1 |
| Fire Exia | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.7% | +15.1 |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.2% | +5.1 |
| Wind Exia | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.2% | +3.6 |
