← Ascent Auckland Path of Steel 2025
Fire SuitedTier 2
at Ascent Auckland Path of Steel 2025
decks
3
(2.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
20
7-13-0
overall winrate
35.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
44.9%
avg ELO -2.0 per match
expected value
44.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1165
· median 1168
· range 1126–1200
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
978
Q1 1244
Q3 1474
1702
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Razorgale | 9.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.7% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 53.9% | +2.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.7% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 31.7% | -13.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.5% | +23.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 6.3% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 31.4% | -11.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 4.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.7% | -14.8 |
| Water Allies | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.3% | +16.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.7% | -18.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.0 |
| Water Genbu | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.3% | +18.1 |
| Fire Oblation | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.3% | +21.3 |
| Slimes | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.7% | +18.7 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.8% | -21.1 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Suited decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
