← Ascent Auckland Path of Steel 2025
Fire Crux MageTier 2
at Ascent Auckland Path of Steel 2025
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Razorgale | 9.5% | 16 | 10-5-1 | 65.6% | 62.5% | 71.8% | +8.7 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.7% | 6 | 1-4-1 | 25.0% | 35.0% | 48.3% | -0.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.7% | 11 | 4-5-2 | 45.5% | 46.7% | 53.0% | +1.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.1% | 10 | 3-3-4 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.3% | +1.9 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 6.3% | 3 | 0-1-2 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 51.7% | +1.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.6% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.1% | +1.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.6% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.9% | -0.7 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 4.0% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 46.3% | -2.1 |
| Water Allies | 4.0% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 60.0% | +6.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.0% | 6 | 1-2-3 | 41.7% | 45.0% | 48.5% | -0.8 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.2% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.5% | +4.1 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 31.0% | -18.3 |
| Fire Suited | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.5% | -23.3 |
| Water Fractal | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 1.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 78.6% | +27.4 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.4% | -10.6 |
| Wind Allies | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.3% | -12.4 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.5% | -20.0 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.0% | +8.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 0.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.2% | +5.1 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.6 |
| Slimes | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 10 from this event
The 10 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 32 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 32 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Heavenly Guide | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nimue, Cursed Touch | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Reprogram | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Duplicitous Replication | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Repelling Palmblast | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rising Tides | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ignite the Soul | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flamewreath Call | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reckoning's Wake | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |