← Ascent Auckland Path of Steel 2025
Fire SuzakuTier 2
at Ascent Auckland Path of Steel 2025
decks
7
(5.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
51
23-27-1
overall winrate
46.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.6%
avg ELO -1.2 per match
expected value
46.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1337
· median 1349
· range 1172–1474
(7 pilots with an ELO rating)
978
Q1 1244
Q3 1474
1702
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
29% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Razorgale | 9.5% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 48.7% | -0.9 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.7% | 6 | 1-5-0 | 16.7% | 30.0% | 31.5% | -9.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.7% | +1.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.9% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.1% | +0.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.1% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 35.9% | -8.1 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 6.3% | 7 | 4-3-0 | 57.1% | 54.5% | 55.6% | +2.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.6% | 7 | 4-3-0 | 57.1% | 54.5% | 53.9% | +2.0 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 4.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.2% | +10.8 |
| Water Allies | 4.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.0% | +8.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 31.9% | -28.9 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 31.0% | -30.4 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 37.9% | -11.6 |
| Fire Suited | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.9% | +15.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.6% | +0.6 |
| Water Genbu | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 66.5% | +26.4 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.6% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 50.9% | +0.7 |
| Fire Exia | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.4% | -23.4 |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.8% | +18.9 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
