← Ascent Auckland Path of Steel 2025
Fire OblationTier 2
at Ascent Auckland Path of Steel 2025
decks
1
(0.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
13
8-3-2
overall winrate
69.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
71.9%
avg ELO +9.2 per match
expected value
55.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
57.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1452
· median 1452
· range 1452–1452
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
978
Q1 1244
Q3 1474
1702
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Razorgale | 9.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.1% | +5.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.7% | +20.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.7% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 62.3% | +7.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.5% | +20.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 6.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.5% | +23.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.6% | -2.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 4.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.5% | -12.0 |
| Water Allies | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.8 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.2% | +22.7 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Oblation decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
