← Ascent Auckland Path of Steel 2025
Water FractalTier 2
at Ascent Auckland Path of Steel 2025
decks
3
(2.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
20
5-13-2
overall winrate
30.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
42.5%
avg ELO -2.9 per match
expected value
41.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1166
· median 1159
· range 1121–1217
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
978
Q1 1244
Q3 1474
1702
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Razorgale | 9.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.2% | -2.9 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.5% | -18.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 6.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.3% | -13.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.2% | -10.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.1% | -15.3 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.6% | +5.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.1 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.4% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 46.4% | -3.4 |
| Fire Suited | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.3% | +18.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.4% | -15.3 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.1% | -4.7 |
| Fire Exia | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.7% | +21.9 |
| Fire Oblation | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.5% | +21.6 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.3 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.2% | +19.6 |
| Wind Exia | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.8% | -19.5 |
