← Ascent Auckland Path of Steel 2025
Wind ShadowstrikeTier 1
at Ascent Auckland Path of Steel 2025
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Razorgale | 9.5% | 9 | 4-5-0 | 44.4% | 46.2% | 43.3% | -3.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.7% | 7 | 2-5-0 | 28.6% | 36.4% | 46.6% | -1.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.9% | 11 | 5-4-2 | 54.5% | 53.3% | 47.0% | -1.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.1% | 14 | 6-3-5 | 60.7% | 58.3% | 69.9% | +8.2 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 6.3% | 8 | 2-4-2 | 37.5% | 41.7% | 40.3% | -4.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.6% | 7 | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 40.7% | -4.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.3% | -1.6 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 4.0% | 6 | 4-2-0 | 66.7% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +4.4 |
| Water Allies | 4.0% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.3% | -1.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.0% | 5 | 0-4-1 | 10.0% | 27.8% | 23.3% | -15.4 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.0% | +19.2 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.4% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 68.3% | +13.7 |
| Water Fractal | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.5% | +18.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 1.6% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 49.8% | -0.2 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.4% | +2.3 |
| Wind Allies | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.5% | +16.8 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.6% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 60.5% | +10.1 |
| Fire Exia | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 0.8% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 37.7% | -7.9 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.4% | +14.8 |
| Fire Slimes | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.5% | -13.6 |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 0.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.0% | +5.8 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.7% | +10.3 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.8% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 60.1% | +7.5 |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 11 from this event
The 11 public Wind Shadowstrike decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 13 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 13 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blackmarket Broker | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirelle, Schwartz Queen | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Beseech the Winds | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zephyr | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |