← Ascent Auckland Path of Steel 2025
Fire Crux MerlinTier 2
at Ascent Auckland Path of Steel 2025
decks
5
(4.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
52
25-22-5
overall winrate
52.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.7%
avg ELO +0.6 per match
expected value
50.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1404
· median 1321
· range 1255–1599
(5 pilots with an ELO rating)
978
Q1 1244
Q3 1474
1702
40% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Razorgale | 9.5% | 7 | 2-2-3 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.5% | +3.8 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.7% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.8% | -2.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.7% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -4.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.9% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 53.7% | +2.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.1% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.5% | +3.8 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 6.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.4% | +15.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.8% | +7.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.8% | -10.8 |
| Water Allies | 4.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 41.2% | -6.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.0% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 42.5% | -4.8 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.8% | -6.0 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 41.4% | -8.3 |
| Fire Suited | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.8 |
| Water Fractal | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.3% | -25.1 |
| Water Genbu | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.8 |
| Wind Allies | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.2% | +16.3 |
| Fire Oblation | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.0 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.7 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.8% | +18.8 |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
