← Akihabara Regional

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Akihabara Regional. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd
Water Crux Lorraine
57.9%
0.3% share · 8 matches
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1st
Wind Crux Lorraine
58.5%
1.3% share · 28 matches
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3rd
Water Aetherwing
57.6%
3.5% share · 79 matches
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#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Wind Crux Lorraine 4 1.3% 28 67.9% 57.6% 58.5% 53.2% 1427 ↑ top
2 Water Crux Lorraine 1 0.3% 8 81.2% 57.3% 57.9% 52.6% 1441 ↑ top
3 Water Aetherwing 11 3.5% 79 66.5% 68.8% 57.6% 59.3% 1388 ↑ top
4 Fire Umbra Guardian 7 2.2% 58 63.8% 60.5% 56.6% 55.4% 1327 —
5 Wind Luxem Zander 2 0.6% 14 57.1% 45.0% 56.3% 51.2% 1457 ↑ top
6 Water Allies 13 4.1% 96 56.8% 55.5% 55.3% 54.9% 1393 ↑ top
7 Water Genbu 8 2.5% 57 57.0% 52.1% 54.0% 52.2% 1396 ↑ top
8 Wind Slice & Dice 1 0.3% 9 61.1% 59.5% 53.8% 53.6% 1220 ↓ low
9 Fire Arcane 2 0.6% 12 58.3% 51.6% 53.4% 51.0% 1262 ↓ low
10 Wind Astra Cleric 9 2.9% 58 56.0% 56.1% 53.1% 52.9% 1311 —
11 Wind Seiryuu 32 10.2% 211 52.4% 52.9% 52.6% 52.8% 1342 —
12 Fire Crux Mage 30 9.6% 178 55.1% 50.8% 52.1% 49.6% 1339 —
13 Fire Firebloom Burn 4 1.3% 30 53.3% 45.9% 51.3% 48.2% 1334 —
14 Fire Luxem Assassin 5 1.6% 37 56.8% 53.7% 50.3% 49.6% 1397 ↑ top
15 Water Fractal 6 1.9% 31 53.2% 53.8% 49.9% 50.7% 1313 —
16 Fire Crux Lorraine 55 17.5% 324 50.8% 50.6% 49.9% 49.9% 1312 —
17 Fire Exia 1 0.3% 8 50.0% 51.3% 49.7% 49.6% 1272 ↓ low
18 Water Neos 1 0.3% 8 43.8% 48.7% 49.4% 51.1% 1331 —
19 Wind Wakeup Combo 10 3.2% 72 49.3% 46.2% 48.9% 47.3% 1362 —
20 Wind Shadowstrike 20 6.4% 134 49.6% 48.9% 48.9% 48.6% 1330 —
21 Water Umbra Guardian 5 1.6% 33 54.5% 48.6% 48.7% 47.3% 1354 —
22 Fire Slimes 5 1.6% 38 38.2% 47.2% 48.0% 50.9% 1286 —
23 Wind Razorgale 8 2.5% 50 51.0% 45.1% 47.5% 44.8% 1330 —
24 Fire Aggro 10 3.2% 70 45.7% 46.4% 47.2% 48.4% 1333 —
25 Wind Umbra Guardian 1 0.3% 5 30.0% 44.7% 47.1% 48.8% 1330 —
26 Water Ravishing Mill 2 0.6% 14 46.4% 58.9% 46.3% 51.9% 1317 —
27 Fire Suzaku 16 5.1% 115 44.8% 49.3% 46.2% 49.0% 1257 ↓ low
28 Water Crux Mage 1 0.3% 8 43.8% 52.0% 46.1% 50.1% 1338 —
29 Fire Oblation 8 2.5% 57 43.0% 45.8% 46.0% 47.0% 1295 —
30 Fire Suited 5 1.6% 36 40.3% 48.6% 44.3% 48.5% 1230 ↓ low
31 Wind Allies 7 2.2% 44 37.5% 41.7% 44.1% 46.4% 1227 ↓ low
32 Slimes 1 0.3% 8 25.0% 33.2% 43.7% 42.8% 1086 ↓ low
33 Horse and Taxes 1 0.3% 8 50.0% 51.4% 43.6% 46.6% 1360 —
34 Fire Umbra Ciel 1 0.3% 8 31.2% 39.4% 43.0% 44.0% 1182 ↓ low
35 Wind Luxem Assassin 1 0.3% 3 16.7% 35.8% 42.4% 41.1% 1303 —
36 Wind Arcane 7 2.2% 40 27.5% 31.8% 40.9% 43.5% 1281 —
37 Fire Tera Mage 2 0.6% 14 25.0% 42.7% 40.1% 45.9% 1090 ↓ low
38 Wind Umbra Ciel 1 0.3% 4 0.0% 34.1% 40.0% 44.0% 1223 ↓ low
39 Wind Vanitas 1 0.3% 3 0.0% 43.5% 40.0% 47.3% 988 ↓ low
40 Wind Ciel 2 0.6% 15 36.7% 39.8% 39.7% 40.6% 1198 ↓ low
41 Water Astra Ranger 2 0.6% 16 25.0% 36.9% 39.6% 43.3% 1286 —
42 Fire Crux Merlin 7 2.2% 40 28.7% 32.4% 37.6% 36.6% 1322 —
43 Water Tera Cleric 1 0.3% 7 0.0% 20.7% 34.0% 35.7% 1162 ↓ low