← AK PTM Regionals (GCC Side Event)
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at AK PTM Regionals (GCC Side Event).
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Slimes | 3 | 1.6% | 24 | 62.5% | 57.3% | 56.7% | 55.4% | 1328 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 7 | 3.8% | 47 | 58.5% | 52.5% | 56.1% | 53.5% | 1336 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Umbra Diana | 1 | 0.5% | 8 | 75.0% | 74.1% | 55.0% | 58.0% | 1326 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Water Luxem Assassin | 1 | 0.5% | 8 | 75.0% | 54.2% | 54.6% | 51.2% | 1685 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Horse and Taxes | 1 | 0.5% | 8 | 68.8% | 60.3% | 53.9% | 52.5% | 1472 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Water Fractal | 2 | 1.1% | 16 | 65.6% | 55.9% | 53.9% | 52.6% | 1328 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Fire Suzaku | 8 | 4.4% | 49 | 54.1% | 52.9% | 52.4% | 52.0% | 1293 | — |
| 8 | Wind Shadowstrike | 20 | 10.9% | 114 | 50.4% | 47.1% | 52.2% | 49.6% | 1324 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Wind Seiryuu | 21 | 11.5% | 136 | 56.2% | 53.1% | 52.2% | 50.8% | 1290 | — |
| 10 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 13 | 7.1% | 89 | 55.1% | 48.4% | 52.2% | 48.6% | 1292 | — |
| 11 | Water Aetherwing | 8 | 4.4% | 58 | 52.6% | 56.5% | 51.4% | 54.5% | 1280 | — |
| 12 | Fire Suited | 4 | 2.2% | 31 | 50.0% | 53.8% | 50.5% | 52.3% | 1274 | — |
| 13 | Fire Exia | 5 | 2.7% | 30 | 51.7% | 48.9% | 50.5% | 49.7% | 1256 | — |
| 14 | Water Allies | 4 | 2.2% | 28 | 58.9% | 55.9% | 50.4% | 50.7% | 1265 | — |
| 15 | Fire Crux Mage | 13 | 7.1% | 84 | 54.8% | 51.0% | 50.4% | 49.8% | 1291 | — |
| 16 | Water Umbra Guardian | 1 | 0.5% | 9 | 44.4% | 49.1% | 50.1% | 51.6% | 1242 | — |
| 17 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 3 | 1.6% | 24 | 50.0% | 49.2% | 50.0% | 49.3% | 1216 | ↓ low |
| 18 | Fire Aggro | 9 | 4.9% | 59 | 54.2% | 56.9% | 49.9% | 52.3% | 1245 | — |
| 19 | Fire Arcane | 2 | 1.1% | 11 | 45.5% | 49.5% | 48.7% | 49.9% | 1303 | — |
| 20 | Wind Umbra Ranger | 4 | 2.2% | 16 | 34.4% | 43.6% | 48.4% | 49.8% | 1196 | ↓ low |
| 21 | Fire Oblation | 4 | 2.2% | 22 | 52.3% | 55.8% | 48.2% | 50.0% | 1236 | — |
| 22 | Slimes | 1 | 0.5% | 8 | 37.5% | 51.0% | 47.7% | 50.7% | 1208 | ↓ low |
| 23 | Fire Aetherwing | 10 | 5.5% | 73 | 46.6% | 51.1% | 47.6% | 50.1% | 1245 | — |
| 24 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 1 | 0.5% | 8 | 37.5% | 41.1% | 47.3% | 47.3% | 1173 | ↓ low |
| 25 | Water Dawn of Ashes | 1 | 0.5% | 4 | 37.5% | 46.6% | 46.9% | 48.1% | 1208 | ↓ low |
| 26 | Water Neos | 1 | 0.5% | 4 | 37.5% | 46.6% | 46.9% | 48.1% | 1208 | ↓ low |
| 27 | Wind Lorraine | 1 | 0.5% | 8 | 50.0% | 51.5% | 46.9% | 47.0% | 1214 | ↓ low |
| 28 | Arcane | 1 | 0.5% | 5 | 40.0% | 38.3% | 46.4% | 46.0% | 1469 | ↑ top |
| 29 | Wind Razorgale | 1 | 0.5% | 8 | 37.5% | 45.3% | 45.8% | 47.1% | 1166 | ↓ low |
| 30 | Wind Astra Cleric | 5 | 2.7% | 38 | 40.8% | 43.6% | 45.6% | 46.7% | 1272 | — |
| 31 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 9 | 4.9% | 59 | 44.9% | 46.0% | 45.2% | 47.2% | 1252 | — |
| 32 | Wind Arcane | 1 | 0.5% | 5 | 40.0% | 45.1% | 45.0% | 46.2% | 1183 | ↓ low |
| 33 | Wind Slice & Dice | 2 | 1.1% | 16 | 40.6% | 36.3% | 45.0% | 42.7% | 1257 | — |
| 34 | Wind Oblation | 1 | 0.5% | 8 | 25.0% | 38.7% | 44.8% | 47.5% | 1115 | ↓ low |
| 35 | Wind Umbra Alice | 1 | 0.5% | 8 | 25.0% | 38.7% | 44.8% | 47.5% | 1115 | ↓ low |
| 36 | Wind Allies | 3 | 1.6% | 26 | 42.3% | 55.8% | 43.8% | 48.1% | 1161 | ↓ low |
| 37 | Water Seiryuu | 1 | 0.5% | 4 | 25.0% | 35.3% | 42.6% | 44.0% | 1186 | ↓ low |
| 38 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 11 | 6.0% | 73 | 34.2% | 42.9% | 42.1% | 46.6% | 1157 | ↓ low |
| 39 | Fire Seiryuu | 1 | 0.5% | 3 | 0.0% | 29.2% | 40.0% | 40.3% | 1190 | ↓ low |
| 40 | Water Umbra Ciel | 1 | 0.5% | 9 | 16.7% | 30.8% | 38.4% | 40.6% | 993 | ↓ low |