Fire Crux LorraineTier 1
at New Taipei Regional
decks
14
(5.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
105
52-40-13
overall winrate
55.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.2%
avg ELO +0.7 per match
expected value
52.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1333
· median 1308
· range 1187–1489
(14 pilots with an ELO rating)
807
Q1 1179
Q3 1349
1694
43% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.1% | 10 | 4-5-1 | 45.0% | 46.4% | 42.8% | -3.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.6% | 7 | 3-2-2 | 57.1% | 54.5% | 52.9% | +1.5 |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.5% | 11 | 3-5-3 | 40.9% | 43.3% | 38.4% | -5.0 |
| Fire Oblation | 6.7% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 33.5% | -12.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.2% | 6 | 2-2-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.2% | -1.5 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.2% | 8 | 3-5-0 | 37.5% | 41.7% | 43.2% | -3.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.5% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 62.2% | +9.1 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.5% | 4 | 2-0-2 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 54.8% | +3.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.1% | 6 | 5-1-0 | 83.3% | 70.0% | 60.4% | +5.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.7% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 62.5% | +8.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.7% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 66.3% | +10.4 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.0% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 50.5% | +0.3 |
| Water Fractal | 3.0% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.6% | +4.9 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.1% | +0.7 |
| Fire Exia | 2.2% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 48.3% | -1.0 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 31.5% | -17.8 |
| Fire Suited | 1.5% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 64.3% | +10.7 |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.6 |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 70.4% | +19.6 |
| Water Allies | 1.5% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 57.5% | +5.6 |
| Wind Allies | 1.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.6% | +16.0 |
| Slimes | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.2 |
| Water Chess | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.7% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.9% | +1.9 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arcane | 0.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.5% | -13.0 |
| Fire Astra Ranger | 0.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.0% | +1.9 |
| Water Genbu | 0.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.3% | -1.1 |
| Water Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.0% | +3.2 |
| Wind Chess | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Merlin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Nico | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 14 from this event
The 14 public Fire Crux Lorraine decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 5 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 5 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Stalwart Shieldmate, Cremation Ritual, Hasty Messenger. Losers more often ran: Tempered Steel, Spirit's Blessing, Crystallized Destiny.
Stalwart Shieldmate
Winning decks ran 2.4
copies on average,
losing decks 1.6.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Cremation Ritual
Winning decks ran 3.4
copies on average,
losing decks 3.0.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Hasty Messenger
Winning decks ran 1.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.8.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Immolation Trap
Winning decks ran 2.4
copies on average,
losing decks 0.8.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Resolute Stand
Winning decks ran 2.4
copies on average,
losing decks 2.0.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Hone by Fire
Winning decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
losing decks 1.6.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 0.
Tempered Steel
Losing decks ran 4.0
copies on average,
winning decks 3.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Spirit's Blessing
Losing decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
winning decks 0.8.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Crystallized Destiny
Losing decks ran 1.6
copies on average,
winning decks 1.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Devastating Blow
Losing decks ran 1.6
copies on average,
winning decks 0.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Varuckan Acolyte
Losing decks ran 2.8
copies on average,
winning decks 2.8.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Rending Flames
Losing decks ran 3.6
copies on average,
winning decks 3.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Show all 44 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 25 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tempered Steel | -0.60 | 0 | 3 | 2 | |
| Undying Dreams | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Overlapping Visages | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.40 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit's Blessing | -0.40 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.40 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.40 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.40 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Immolation Trap | +0.40 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Varuck, Smoldering Spire | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 3 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 4 | |
| Hone by Fire | +0.20 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Stolen Chance | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Peer Beyond | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Reveal the Hidden | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Library Witch | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Undeniable Truth | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Veteran Blazebearer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Votive Runeblade | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Lorraine, Crux Knight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Topsy Decree | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Spirit Blade: Dispersion | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Lorraine, Spirit Ruler | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Sword Saint's Vow | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Annul Spell | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 |