Fire OblationTier 2
at New Taipei Regional
decks
18
(6.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
120
50-57-13
overall winrate
47.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.1%
avg ELO -0.6 per match
expected value
47.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1253
· median 1272
· range 1072–1535
(18 pilots with an ELO rating)
807
Q1 1179
Q3 1349
1694
11% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
28% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.1% | 11 | 1-6-4 | 27.3% | 33.3% | 41.5% | -3.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.6% | 16 | 5-10-1 | 34.4% | 37.5% | 39.6% | -4.2 |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.5% | 12 | 7-4-1 | 62.5% | 59.4% | 55.6% | +2.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.2% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 66.5% | +12.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.2% | 13 | 10-2-1 | 80.8% | 73.5% | 65.1% | +6.3 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.2% | 10 | 1-8-1 | 15.0% | 25.0% | 38.5% | -5.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.5% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 55.6% | +4.2 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.5% | 7 | 1-5-1 | 21.4% | 31.8% | 40.8% | -4.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.1% | 7 | 3-3-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.5% | -0.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.7% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 50.2% | +0.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.7% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.6% | -4.1 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.0% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 49.3% | -0.4 |
| Water Fractal | 3.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.6% | -11.9 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.2% | -4.5 |
| Fire Exia | 2.2% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 58.4% | +6.3 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.7% | -12.8 |
| Fire Suited | 1.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.4% | +0.4 |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 1.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.5% | -5.6 |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.6 |
| Water Allies | 1.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.0% | -1.0 |
| Wind Allies | 1.5% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 66.3% | +12.2 |
| Slimes | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.2 |
| Water Chess | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.6% | +10.6 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.6% | -11.8 |
| Fire Slimes | 0.7% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 44.1% | -5.6 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arcane | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 0.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.6% | -3.3 |
| Water Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.6% | +7.4 |
| Wind Merlin | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.5% | +10.4 |
| Wind Neos | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Nico | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.4% | -17.0 |
Decklists · 18 from this event
The 18 public Fire Oblation decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 4 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Reduce to Ash, Umbra Sight, Gentle Respite. Losers more often ran: Blanche, Sheltering Saint, Hasty Messenger, Carter, Synthetic Reaper.
Reduce to Ash
Winning decks ran 2.8
copies on average,
losing decks 2.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Umbra Sight
Winning decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Gentle Respite
Winning decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
losing decks 0.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Heavy Swing
Winning decks ran 1.5
copies on average,
losing decks 1.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Feu Awakening
Winning decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
losing decks 3.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Regal Inquisition
Winning decks ran 1.5
copies on average,
losing decks 1.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Blanche, Sheltering Saint
Losing decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
winning decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Hasty Messenger
Losing decks ran 3.5
copies on average,
winning decks 2.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Carter, Synthetic Reaper
Losing decks ran 2.5
copies on average,
winning decks 2.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Three of Hearts
Losing decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
winning decks 1.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Safeguard Amulet
Losing decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Show all 75 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 61 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reduce to Ash | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Umbra Sight | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Folded Shadows | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Beguiling Coup | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Annul Spell | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Ducal Seal | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Heavy Swing | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Feu Awakening | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Peaceful Reunion | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Mirage's Grave | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Lamentation's Toll | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Manxome Armoire | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Ciel, Loyal Valet | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Grande Sonnerie | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Ciel, Omenbringer | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Chalice of Blood | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Immolation Trap | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Advent of the Stormcaller | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Sable Remnant | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Reflected Blight | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Condemned Trinket | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lingering Banshee | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Remnant of Will | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Meltdown | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Maledictum Vitae | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mantle of the Abyss | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Candlelight Hourglass | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirelle, Schwartz Queen | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lost Promises | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Overlapping Visages | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shadow's Twin | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Plated Bullet | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tricastles of Lucenia | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Oneiric Key | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grim Pastiche | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Alice, Phantom Monarch | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Alice, Distorted Queen | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prismspire Scepter | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Infernal Vessel | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flamme Sorcel | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Abnegation | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |