Fire Crux MageTier 2
at New Taipei Regional
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.1% | 14 | 9-4-1 | 67.9% | 63.9% | 64.8% | +6.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.6% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 48.7% | -0.8 |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.5% | 7 | 5-1-1 | 78.6% | 68.2% | 70.8% | +10.5 |
| Fire Oblation | 6.7% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 44.4% | -4.2 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.2% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 37.8% | -9.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.2% | 6 | 2-2-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.3% | +1.2 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.2% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.5% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 47.0% | -2.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.1% | 6 | 1-5-0 | 16.7% | 30.0% | 29.6% | -10.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.7% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 47.0% | -2.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.7% | 4 | 0-3-1 | 12.5% | 31.2% | 38.8% | -7.2 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.0% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 40.5% | -7.1 |
| Water Fractal | 3.0% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.3% | +0.9 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 60.3% | +7.7 |
| Fire Exia | 2.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.3% | -2.8 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.0% | -20.8 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 1.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.7 |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 1.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.8% | +12.3 |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.5% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.1% | +3.9 |
| Water Allies | 1.5% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 32.5% | -13.1 |
| Wind Allies | 1.5% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 61.3% | +8.5 |
| Slimes | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.0% | +17.6 |
| Water Chess | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.2 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.6% | -2.3 |
| Arcane | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 0.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 55.1% | +4.9 |
| Wind Merlin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.3 |
| Wind Nico | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 12 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 34 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 34 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Royal Oathguard | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unmake Duality | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sacred Engulfment | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Duplicitous Replication | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nimue, Cursed Touch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sovereign Sanctuary | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Protect Her At All Costs | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flared Iridescence | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Consumption Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuck, Smoldering Spire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |