Wind ShadowstrikeTier 1
at New Taipei Regional
decks
27
(10.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
187
88-79-20
overall winrate
52.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.0%
avg ELO +0.3 per match
expected value
51.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1265
· median 1232
· range 1055–1539
(27 pilots with an ELO rating)
807
Q1 1179
Q3 1349
1694
22% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
19% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.6% | 18 | 11-4-3 | 69.4% | 65.9% | 63.6% | +5.3 |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.5% | 16 | 6-7-3 | 46.9% | 47.5% | 45.0% | -2.0 |
| Fire Oblation | 6.7% | 11 | 6-1-4 | 72.7% | 66.7% | 58.5% | +3.7 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.2% | 10 | 5-4-1 | 55.0% | 53.6% | 57.2% | +3.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.2% | 6 | 0-4-2 | 16.7% | 30.0% | 30.8% | -10.2 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.2% | 10 | 2-8-0 | 20.0% | 28.6% | 31.7% | -8.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.5% | 14 | 4-9-1 | 32.1% | 36.1% | 35.2% | -6.1 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.5% | 9 | 5-4-0 | 55.6% | 53.8% | 52.7% | +1.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.1% | 8 | 4-4-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.1% | +2.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.7% | 12 | 8-3-1 | 70.8% | 65.6% | 61.1% | +4.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.7% | 9 | 2-6-1 | 27.8% | 34.6% | 41.3% | -4.0 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.1% | -1.9 |
| Water Fractal | 3.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 49.9% | -0.0 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.2% | -0.5 |
| Fire Exia | 2.2% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 72.3% | +16.7 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.9% | 7 | 4-3-0 | 57.1% | 54.5% | 51.6% | +0.8 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.9% | 6 | 3-2-1 | 58.3% | 55.0% | 49.9% | -0.1 |
| Fire Suited | 1.5% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.2% | +2.0 |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 1.5% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 62.7% | +9.5 |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.5% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 38.9% | -7.1 |
| Water Allies | 1.5% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 54.9% | +4.7 |
| Wind Allies | 1.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.0% | +1.9 |
| Slimes | 1.1% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 58.8% | +6.6 |
| Water Chess | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.0 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 42.3% | -7.4 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.7% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 47.1% | -2.2 |
| Fire Slimes | 0.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.5% | -5.3 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.3 |
| Wind Byakko | 0.7% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 53.9% | +2.2 |
| Arcane | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.3 |
| Fire Astra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.5% | -23.2 |
| Wind Chess | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Merlin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Nico | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.1 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.8% | +0.7 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.8% | +0.7 |
Decklists · 27 from this event
The 27 public Wind Shadowstrike decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 9 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Orb of Sealing, Zephyr, Topsy Decree. Losers more often ran: Innervate Agility, Fairy Whispers, Dungeon Guide.
Orb of Sealing
Winning decks ran 0.4
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 9 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 5.
Zephyr
Winning decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 9 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Topsy Decree
Winning decks ran 2.9
copies on average,
losing decks 2.3.
Of 9 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 3.
Censer of Restful Peace
Winning decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
losing decks 0.7.
Of 9 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 5.
Calming Breeze
Winning decks ran 2.9
copies on average,
losing decks 2.6.
Of 9 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 6.
Ensnaring Fumes
Winning decks ran 2.9
copies on average,
losing decks 2.8.
Of 9 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 6.
Innervate Agility
Losing decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
winning decks 1.9.
Of 9 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Fairy Whispers
Losing decks ran 2.8
copies on average,
winning decks 2.7.
Of 9 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 2.
Dungeon Guide
Losing decks ran 3.6
copies on average,
winning decks 3.8.
Of 9 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 6.
Dream Fairy
Losing decks ran 1.6
copies on average,
winning decks 1.4.
Of 9 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 4.
Safeguard Amulet
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.7.
Of 9 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 6.
Arrow Trap
Losing decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 9 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 6.
Show all 54 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 34 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orb of Sealing | +0.44 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Innervate Agility | -0.44 | 1 | 5 | 3 | |
| Zephyr | +0.33 | 4 | 1 | 0 | |
| Verdigris Decree | -0.22 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.22 | 0 | 2 | 7 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.22 | 2 | 0 | 7 | |
| Topsy Decree | +0.22 | 4 | 2 | 3 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.22 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.22 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.22 | 3 | 1 | 5 | |
| Calming Breeze | +0.11 | 2 | 1 | 6 | |
| Cleansing Reunion | -0.11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aesan Protector | +0.11 | 1 | 0 | 8 | |
| Heavenly Guide | -0.11 | 0 | 1 | 8 | |
| Cry for Help | +0.11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | +0.11 | 2 | 1 | 6 | |
| Fairy Whispers | -0.11 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | +0.11 | 1 | 0 | 8 | |
| Abnegation | +0.11 | 1 | 0 | 8 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.11 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Blackmarket Broker | -0.11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reclaim | +0.11 | 1 | 0 | 8 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -0.11 | 1 | 2 | 6 | |
| Spirelle, Schwartz Queen | +0.11 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Purifying Thurible | +0.11 | 1 | 0 | 8 | |
| Dream Fairy | -0.11 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.11 | 1 | 2 | 5 | |
| Arrow Trap | -0.11 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nocturne's Oblivion | +0.11 | 2 | 1 | 4 | |
| Expeditious Opening | -0.11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Curved Dagger | -0.11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Final Stroke | -0.11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Revenant’s Scourge | -0.11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sharpen Blade | -0.11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shimmercloak Assassin | -0.11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shadow Resonance | -0.11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Exploit Vulnerability | -0.11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unmake Duality | +0.11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +0.11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Winbless Lookout | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 7 | |
| Lost Providence | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 3 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 5 | |
| Mastermind Scheme | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 5 | |
| Stifling Trap | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 7 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Slice and Dice | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 7 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Penumbral Waltz | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tempest Downfall | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |
| Umbra Sight | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Reveal the Hidden | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Eternal Magistrate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |