Fire Umbra GuardianTier 1
at New Taipei Regional
decks
12
(4.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
84
38-34-12
overall winrate
52.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.5%
avg ELO -0.8 per match
expected value
51.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1324
· median 1364
· range 1045–1536
(12 pilots with an ELO rating)
807
Q1 1179
Q3 1349
1694
58% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
25% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.1% | 9 | 4-5-0 | 44.4% | 46.2% | 47.3% | -1.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.6% | 6 | 2-3-1 | 41.7% | 45.0% | 43.0% | -3.7 |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.5% | 8 | 3-3-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.0% | -3.4 |
| Fire Oblation | 6.7% | 7 | 5-1-1 | 78.6% | 68.2% | 59.2% | +4.6 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.2% | 4 | 0-2-2 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 45.2% | -3.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.2% | 7 | 4-3-0 | 57.1% | 54.5% | 48.2% | -0.9 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.2% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 56.3% | +4.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.5% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 53.0% | +2.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.7% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 41.6% | -5.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.7% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 63.6% | +13.0 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 57.9% | +7.6 |
| Water Fractal | 3.0% | 7 | 3-3-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.8% | -2.6 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.2 |
| Fire Exia | 2.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 31.9% | -17.4 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.9% | 4 | 0-3-1 | 12.5% | 31.2% | 28.1% | -14.0 |
| Fire Suited | 1.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.8% | -19.6 |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.0% | +19.2 |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.0% | +4.8 |
| Water Allies | 1.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.5% | +1.5 |
| Wind Allies | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.9% | +1.8 |
| Water Chess | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.7% | +15.1 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.2% | +16.4 |
| Fire Slimes | 0.7% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 56.5% | +6.3 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.2% | -1.7 |
| Arcane | 0.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.6% | -14.8 |
| Fire Astra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Merlin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Nico | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
