Wind SeiryuuTier 2
at New Taipei Regional
decks
23
(8.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
164
66-84-14
overall winrate
44.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.0%
avg ELO -1.0 per match
expected value
45.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1243
· median 1240
· range 1115–1442
(23 pilots with an ELO rating)
807
Q1 1179
Q3 1349
1694
13% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
35% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.1% | 18 | 4-11-3 | 30.6% | 34.1% | 36.4% | -5.3 |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.5% | 13 | 3-10-0 | 23.1% | 29.4% | 34.8% | -6.4 |
| Fire Oblation | 6.7% | 16 | 10-5-1 | 65.6% | 62.5% | 60.4% | +4.2 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.2% | 7 | 2-3-2 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 47.1% | -1.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.2% | 12 | 4-6-2 | 41.7% | 43.8% | 39.8% | -4.4 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.2% | 9 | 3-6-0 | 33.3% | 38.5% | 42.1% | -3.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.5% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 51.3% | +0.8 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.5% | 6 | 3-2-1 | 58.3% | 55.0% | 57.0% | +3.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.1% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 40.8% | -5.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.7% | 9 | 5-4-0 | 55.6% | 53.8% | 62.4% | +5.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.7% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 48.1% | -1.0 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.0% | 7 | 6-1-0 | 85.7% | 72.7% | 67.3% | +8.7 |
| Water Fractal | 3.0% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 58.0% | +5.1 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.6% | -1.3 |
| Fire Exia | 2.2% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 42.4% | -4.9 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.9% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.9% | -0.7 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.9% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 54.9% | +4.7 |
| Fire Suited | 1.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.6% | -10.3 |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 1.5% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 56.3% | +4.7 |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.5% | 7 | 4-3-0 | 57.1% | 54.5% | 57.8% | +3.9 |
| Water Allies | 1.5% | 4 | 0-3-1 | 12.5% | 31.2% | 36.5% | -8.6 |
| Wind Allies | 1.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.5% | +1.5 |
| Slimes | 1.1% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 36.6% | -10.0 |
| Water Chess | 1.1% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.3% | -2.8 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.1% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.7% | -0.7 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.4% | -8.9 |
| Fire Slimes | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.7% | -16.6 |
| Wind Byakko | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.6% | -23.1 |
| Arcane | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.1% | -9.4 |
| Water Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Merlin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.8% | +4.5 |
| Wind Nico | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.1 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.3% | +16.5 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 23 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 6 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 6 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Resolute Stand, Aesan Protector, Windmill Engineer. Losers more often ran: Scout the Land, Sunblessed Gazelle, Tricastles of Lucenia.
Resolute Stand
Winning decks ran 2.8
copies on average,
losing decks 2.3.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Aesan Protector
Winning decks ran 2.7
copies on average,
losing decks 1.3.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Windmill Engineer
Winning decks ran 2.7
copies on average,
losing decks 0.7.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Trained Hawk
Winning decks ran 1.7
copies on average,
losing decks 0.7.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Brisk Windtrotter
Winning decks ran 2.3
copies on average,
losing decks 1.7.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Annul Spell
Winning decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Scout the Land
Losing decks ran 2.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Sunblessed Gazelle
Losing decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
winning decks 1.5.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Tricastles of Lucenia
Losing decks ran 1.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Dream Fairy
Losing decks ran 2.8
copies on average,
winning decks 2.3.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Royal Oathguard
Losing decks ran 2.3
copies on average,
winning decks 1.7.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Forest Cake
Losing decks ran 2.5
copies on average,
winning decks 2.5.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Show all 45 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 25 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scout the Land | -0.67 | 0 | 4 | 1 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.50 | 3 | 0 | 3 | |
| Aesan Protector | +0.50 | 4 | 1 | 1 | |
| Sunblessed Gazelle | -0.50 | 1 | 4 | 1 | |
| Windmill Engineer | +0.50 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Trained Hawk | +0.50 | 4 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tricastles of Lucenia | -0.50 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Brisk Windtrotter | +0.50 | 3 | 0 | 3 | |
| Dream Fairy | -0.50 | 0 | 3 | 3 | |
| Annul Spell | +0.50 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Royal Oathguard | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 2 | |
| Forest Cake | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reclaim | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Winds of Destiny | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Displace | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| Rictus Tiding | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Excalibur, Cleansing Light | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Noble Dissolution | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lost Providence | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |
| Fairy Whispers | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Longtail Grovesward | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |
| Stifling Trap | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Harness Lightning | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Zephyr | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Innervate Agility | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 5 | |
| Veiling Breeze | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Spellward Scepter | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 4 | |
| Orb of Sealing | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Bestial Frenzy | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Calming Breeze | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Ducal Seal | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 4 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |
| Beseech the Winds | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 2 |