Wind Crux LorraineTier 2
at New Taipei Regional
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.1% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.8% | +0.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.4% | +1.3 |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.5% | 6 | 5-0-1 | 91.7% | 75.0% | 68.4% | +9.8 |
| Fire Oblation | 6.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.8% | +4.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.2% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.9% | -0.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.2% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 37.0% | -9.7 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.2% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 65.4% | +8.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.5% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 39.7% | -7.7 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.6% | -10.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.6% | -16.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.7% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.9% | -1.0 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 57.4% | +7.1 |
| Water Fractal | 3.0% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 58.2% | +7.9 |
| Fire Exia | 2.2% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 45.5% | -4.3 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.8% | +9.3 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.9% | -3.9 |
| Fire Suited | 1.5% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 54.4% | +3.3 |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.5% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 39.8% | -9.8 |
| Wind Allies | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +8.9 |
| Slimes | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.4% | -16.9 |
| Water Chess | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.2 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.3% | -1.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 0.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.2% | -1.3 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.7 |
| Wind Byakko | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.9% | +6.3 |
| Arcane | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.7% | -11.7 |
| Fire Astra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Merlin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Nico | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 7 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 53 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 53 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hurricane Sweep | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Four of Spades | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Calming Breeze | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Spirit Blade: Dispersion | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Veiling Breeze | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Sword of Shadows | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Backup Charger | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Eternal Magistrate | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Vorpal Sword | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Rally the Peasants | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Longtail Grovesward | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Rose, Eternal Paragon | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Banner Knight | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Scout the Land | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stolen Chance | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tempest Downfall | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Break Apart | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zephyr | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Dream Fairy | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Palvor Sword | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Intangible Geist | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Excalibur, Reflected Edge | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Votive Runeblade | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diablerie | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Infusion | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Second Wind | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arrow Trap | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Brisk Windtrotter | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Innervate Agility | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cry for Help | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Guan Yu, Prime Exemplar | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |