Water AlliesTier 2
at New Taipei Regional
decks
4
(1.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
31
16-12-3
overall winrate
56.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
56.6%
avg ELO +2.4 per match
expected value
52.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1305
· median 1303
· range 1246–1366
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
807
Q1 1179
Q3 1349
1694
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.1% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 45.1% | -4.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.6% | 4 | 3-0-1 | 87.5% | 68.8% | 63.5% | +8.6 |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.5% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 56.1% | +4.6 |
| Fire Oblation | 6.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.0% | +1.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.2% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 42.5% | -5.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 41.2% | -8.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.5% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 67.5% | +13.1 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.5% | -1.5 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.3% | -18.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.0% | +11.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.9% | +19.0 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 60.2% | +9.8 |
| Fire Exia | 2.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.9% | -9.7 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.8 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.4% | -5.8 |
| Arcane | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Merlin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Nico | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
