Fire ExiaTier 2
at New Taipei Regional
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.1% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 27.7% | -16.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.6% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 57.6% | +4.9 |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.5% | 4 | 1-1-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.6% | -1.6 |
| Fire Oblation | 6.7% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 41.6% | -6.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.2% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 51.7% | +1.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 31.5% | -17.8 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.2% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 45.3% | -3.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.7% | +2.8 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 68.1% | +17.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.2% | -10.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.4% | -15.3 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 54.5% | +4.3 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 1.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.9% | -17.7 |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.1% | +9.7 |
| Wind Allies | 1.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 41.6% | -8.0 |
| Slimes | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 1.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 55.9% | +5.7 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.3% | +18.1 |
| Fire Slimes | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +9.9 |
| Arcane | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.7% | -18.1 |
| Water Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.8% | +9.3 |
| Wind Chess | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.4% | +2.2 |
| Wind Merlin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Nico | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.2 |
Decklists · 6 from this event
The 6 public Fire Exia decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 30 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 30 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Huaji of Heaven's Rise | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Increasing Danger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Proof of Life | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bloodshroud Temper | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crimson Prescience | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuck, Smoldering Spire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Meltdown | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Obscured Offering | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lost Providence | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Waited Accord | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Relentless Outburst | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Annihilation | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |