Fire Umbra AliceTier 3
at New Taipei Regional
decks
4
(1.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
21
4-14-3
overall winrate
26.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
26.5%
avg ELO -8.9 per match
expected value
44.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
43.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1152
· median 1090
· range 1072–1353
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
807
Q1 1179
Q3 1349
1694
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
75% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.1% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 37.3% | -9.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.6% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 43.7% | -4.7 |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.7% | -11.7 |
| Fire Oblation | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.5% | +5.6 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.6% | -8.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 55.7% | +5.5 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.2% | -12.3 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.0% | -19.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.8% | -6.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.8% | -6.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.3% | -22.0 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.2% | -12.5 |
| Water Fractal | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.7% | -11.8 |
| Fire Suited | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.8% | -16.3 |
| Water Chess | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.4% | -21.8 |
| Arcane | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Merlin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Nico | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Fire Umbra Alice decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
