Fire SuzakuTier 2
at New Taipei Regional
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.1% | 8 | 4-4-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.9% | -2.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.6% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 59.2% | +5.3 |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.5% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.0% | -1.9 |
| Fire Oblation | 6.7% | 7 | 3-3-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.5% | +0.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.2% | 6 | 1-5-0 | 16.7% | 30.0% | 39.6% | -5.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.2% | 4 | 0-3-1 | 12.5% | 31.2% | 33.0% | -10.9 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.2% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 32.2% | -11.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.5% | 6 | 5-1-0 | 83.3% | 70.0% | 70.4% | +10.9 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.7% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 39.5% | -6.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.8 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 54.5% | +3.4 |
| Water Fractal | 3.0% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 61.7% | +6.7 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.6 |
| Fire Exia | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.5 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.1% | -17.4 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.7 |
| Fire Suited | 1.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.7% | -9.9 |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.2% | +6.8 |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 32.9% | -16.4 |
| Water Allies | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.7% | +18.8 |
| Wind Allies | 1.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.8% | -4.1 |
| Slimes | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.8 |
| Water Chess | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.0 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.7% | -10.8 |
| Fire Slimes | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.8 |
| Wind Byakko | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arcane | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.1% | -9.4 |
| Water Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Merlin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Nico | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.2% | -15.7 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.9 |
Decklists · 11 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 35 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 35 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expose Darkness | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Heated Vengeance | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Peer Beyond | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Expel the Departed | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spontaneous Combustion | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Cinder Geyser | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Broken Promises | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Infernal Vessel | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Guo Jia, Blessed Scion | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fiery Interference | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flamewreath Call | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stolen Chance | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Coiled Fatestone | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignite Fate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Demolition | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shatter the Brittle | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |