Fire Crux MerlinTier 2
at New Taipei Regional
decks
2
(0.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
18
10-6-2
overall winrate
61.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.9%
avg ELO +1.5 per match
expected value
53.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1397
· median 1397
· range 1386–1408
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
807
Q1 1179
Q3 1349
1694
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.1% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 52.9% | +2.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +8.9 |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.5% | +8.7 |
| Fire Oblation | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.8 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | -0.0 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.3% | -11.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.8% | -16.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.3% | +10.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.8% | -6.7 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.5% | +4.0 |
| Water Fractal | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.7% | +1.0 |
| Fire Exia | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.7% | -18.1 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.8 |
| Water Allies | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.4 |
| Slimes | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arcane | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Merlin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Nico | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
