Fire AggroTier 2
at Ascent Manila 2026
decks
16
(5.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
141
67-70-4
overall winrate
48.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.3%
avg ELO +0.1 per match
expected value
48.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1317
· median 1324
· range 1105–1532
(16 pilots with an ELO rating)
1061
Q1 1211
Q3 1431
1730
19% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
19% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.5% | 14 | 8-6-0 | 57.1% | 55.6% | 65.2% | +6.2 |
| Fire Oblation | 9.4% | 12 | 6-6-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.0% | -0.9 |
| Water Aetherwing | 8.0% | 19 | 9-10-0 | 47.4% | 47.8% | 48.3% | -0.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.9% | 7 | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 49.6% | -0.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.1% | 8 | 3-5-0 | 37.5% | 41.7% | 40.5% | -4.6 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.7% | 9 | 1-8-0 | 11.1% | 23.1% | 25.0% | -11.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.7% | 7 | 4-2-1 | 64.3% | 59.1% | 68.5% | +9.3 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.0% | 9 | 2-7-0 | 22.2% | 30.8% | 38.6% | -5.3 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.6% | 8 | 4-4-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.5% | -3.6 |
| Water Fractal | 2.9% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 58.7% | +5.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.9% | 5 | 5-0-0 | 100.0% | 77.8% | 78.4% | +16.4 |
| Wind Chess | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.9% | +19.1 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.2% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 38.2% | -8.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.5 |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.8% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 22.8% | -20.3 |
| Water Genbu | 1.8% | 5 | 5-0-0 | 100.0% | 77.8% | 77.9% | +16.1 |
| Slimes | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.3% | +4.2 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 41.9% | -7.8 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.1% | -11.4 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.2% | -15.7 |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.2% | +8.3 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arcane | 0.7% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 62.4% | +7.9 |
| Fire Suited | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.0% | -6.3 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 22.5% | -26.4 |
| Fire Arcane | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.3% | +24.5 |
| Fire Exia | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Rai | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.8 |
| Fire Slimes | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.7% | -16.5 |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.2 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slice & Dice | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Alice | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.6 |
| Wind Byakko | 0.4% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 56.5% | +6.2 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.1% | -1.5 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.1 |
| Wind Diana | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.6% | +7.4 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 16 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 5 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 5 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Fire Resonance Bauble, Creative Shock, Clarent, Reimagined. Losers more often ran: Incapacitate, Molten Echo, Varuckan Soulknife.
Fire Resonance Bauble
Winning decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Creative Shock
Winning decks ran 2.4
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Clarent, Reimagined
Winning decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Wind Resonance Bauble
Winning decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Lorraine, Blademaster
Winning decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Clarent, Sword of Peace
Winning decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Incapacitate
Losing decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
winning decks 1.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Molten Echo
Losing decks ran 2.6
copies on average,
winning decks 1.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Varuckan Soulknife
Losing decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
winning decks 0.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Rococo, Explosive Maven
Losing decks ran 4.0
copies on average,
winning decks 1.6.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Blazing Throw
Losing decks ran 4.0
copies on average,
winning decks 3.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Corhazi Courier
Losing decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
winning decks 0.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Show all 82 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 62 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Incapacitate | -0.80 | 0 | 4 | 1 | |
| Molten Echo | -0.60 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Soulknife | -0.60 | 0 | 3 | 2 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | -0.60 | 0 | 3 | 2 | |
| Blazing Throw | -0.60 | 0 | 3 | 2 | |
| Corhazi Courier | -0.60 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | -0.60 | 0 | 3 | 2 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Memorite Vassal | -0.40 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Demolition | +0.40 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mote Sear | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | -0.40 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Infernal Vessel | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 3 | |
| Restorative Flame | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | -0.40 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| March Hare, Mottled Host | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 3 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fiery Momentum | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword Saint's Vow | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tempered Steel | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuck, Smoldering Spire | +0.40 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Heated Vengeance | -0.20 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Immolation Trap | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Tweedledum, Rattled Dancer | +0.20 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Impact Hammer | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Orb of Sealing | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Ignis Deus | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Raze the Land | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Bandage Wound | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unmake Duality | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vengeful Paramour | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sable Remnant | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Enfeebled Dagger | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mortal Ambition | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Exploit Vulnerability | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Surging Bolt | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Increasing Danger | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Veteran Blazebearer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prismspire Scepter | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Dazzling Courtesan | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fiery Interference | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignite Fate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |