Water FractalTier 2
at Ascent Manila 2026
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.5% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 41.2% | -5.0 |
| Fire Oblation | 9.4% | 11 | 4-6-1 | 40.9% | 43.3% | 41.7% | -3.6 |
| Water Aetherwing | 8.0% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 50.6% | +0.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.1% | -16.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.8% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 41.3% | -5.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.1% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 31.2% | -12.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.7% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 26.7% | -17.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.7% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 61.3% | +8.4 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.7% | +18.7 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.6% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 67.2% | +12.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.9% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 55.3% | +5.1 |
| Wind Chess | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.7% | +18.8 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.2% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 37.3% | -9.5 |
| Fire Suzaku | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.1% | -17.4 |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.7% | -0.3 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.2% | +18.0 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.2 |
| Arcane | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.5% | +24.8 |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.5% | +5.6 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.7% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 40.9% | -6.8 |
| Fire Arcane | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 0.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.2% | -6.0 |
| Fire Polkhawk | 0.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.8% | -0.3 |
| Fire Rai | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.0% | -19.2 |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slice & Dice | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Alice | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.6 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.8% | -9.9 |
Decklists · 8 from this event
The 8 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 49 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 49 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spalling Cleanse | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scepter of Fascination | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Frostbind | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Sweet Ambrosia | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Healing Aura | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zhang Jiao, Way of Peace | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Yudi, Gossamer Jade | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Unstable Fractal | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Sovereign Sanctuary | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Kaleidoscope Barrette | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Mana | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Captivating Opulence | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fracturize | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Gentle Respite | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Eventide Lure | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Awakened Deacon | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Nascent Blast | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mana Resonance | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diao Chan, Dreaming Wish | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Snow | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Scepter of Awakening | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Water Barrier | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Regret | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diao Chan, Idyll Corsage | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Wand of Frost | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chill to the Bone | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |