Water AlliesTier 3
at Ascent Manila 2026
decks
4
(1.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
35
16-18-1
overall winrate
47.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.9%
avg ELO +1.0 per match
expected value
48.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1304
· median 1350
· range 1106–1412
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1061
Q1 1211
Q3 1431
1730
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
25% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.5% | 7 | 1-6-0 | 14.3% | 27.3% | 30.9% | -9.6 |
| Fire Oblation | 9.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 8.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 79.7% | +28.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.9% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 29.0% | -15.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.7% | -4.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 59.0% | +8.6 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.5% | +16.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.3% | +4.2 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 68.6% | +17.8 |
| Water Fractal | 2.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.3% | +0.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.2% | +21.2 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 57.5% | +7.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 1.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.4% | +0.4 |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.4% | -7.4 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.3 |
| Wind Allies | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.5% | -7.2 |
| Arcane | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.1 |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Rai | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.3% | -10.7 |
| Fire Slimes | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.3% | -17.1 |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.4% | +0.7 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slice & Dice | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Alice | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
