Fire Umbra GuardianTier 2
at Ascent Manila 2026
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.5% | 10 | 2-7-1 | 25.0% | 32.1% | 25.7% | -10.9 |
| Fire Oblation | 9.4% | 18 | 7-6-5 | 52.8% | 52.3% | 50.4% | +0.1 |
| Water Aetherwing | 8.0% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 62.6% | +7.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.9% | 10 | 4-5-1 | 45.0% | 46.4% | 46.1% | -1.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.8% | 9 | 7-2-0 | 77.8% | 69.2% | 61.4% | +5.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.1% | 10 | 3-5-2 | 40.0% | 42.9% | 46.1% | -1.8 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.7% | 8 | 2-4-2 | 37.5% | 41.7% | 52.8% | +1.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.7% | 8 | 4-2-2 | 62.5% | 58.3% | 63.6% | +6.5 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.6% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 70.2% | +13.0 |
| Water Fractal | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.3% | -18.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.8% | +18.8 |
| Wind Chess | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.5% | -24.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 1.8% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.3% | -0.4 |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.8% | -10.0 |
| Slimes | 1.4% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 63.4% | +10.0 |
| Water Allies | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.4% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 47.2% | -2.1 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.6% | -15.7 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.6% | +2.5 |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 68.9% | +18.2 |
| Arcane | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.8% | +22.0 |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 0.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.1% | -4.7 |
| Fire Polkhawk | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Rai | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.6 |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slice & Dice | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Alice | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.3% | -13.9 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.6% | -13.5 |
| Wind Arcane | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.8% | -1.8 |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 11 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 40 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 40 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accursed Strength | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ombreux Chevalier | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Infernal Vessel | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Undeniable Truth | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grim Pastiche | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Peaceful Reunion | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Three of Hearts | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flamme Sorcel | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Umbra Sight | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gloamspire, Black Market | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Profane Bindings | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nocturne's Oblivion | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Heavy Swing | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Demolition | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |