Wind ChessTier 2
at Ascent Manila 2026
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.5% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 27.2% | -14.6 |
| Fire Oblation | 9.4% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 27.1% | -17.1 |
| Water Aetherwing | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.9% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 40.4% | -7.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.1% | -19.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 32.7% | -16.6 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.3% | -14.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.0% | +4.7 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.3% | -18.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.9% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 25.7% | -18.1 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.8% | -21.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.5% | -5.6 |
| Water Genbu | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.0% | -6.5 |
| Slimes | 1.4% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 23.4% | -19.9 |
| Water Allies | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.8% | -21.2 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.8% | -18.0 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.5 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.2% | -18.9 |
| Wind Allies | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arcane | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.1% | -3.0 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.4% | +19.8 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.2% | -18.9 |
| Fire Arcane | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.4% | -15.3 |
| Fire Exia | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.5% | -21.6 |
| Fire Polkhawk | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Rai | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.2% | -22.1 |
| Water Neos | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 31.5% | -17.7 |
| Water Slice & Dice | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.7% | +20.3 |
| Water Umbra Alice | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.0% | -20.7 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 7 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match (2 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card-quantity differences observed in the mirrors — every mirror used an identical decklist.