Wind ShadowstrikeTier 1
at Ascent Manila 2026
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.5% | 33 | 19-10-4 | 63.6% | 62.2% | 69.2% | +6.9 |
| Fire Oblation | 9.4% | 6 | 3-2-1 | 58.3% | 55.0% | 52.5% | +1.3 |
| Water Aetherwing | 8.0% | 12 | 7-5-0 | 58.3% | 56.2% | 49.6% | -0.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.9% | 17 | 10-6-1 | 61.8% | 59.5% | 64.3% | +5.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.8% | 7 | 2-4-1 | 35.7% | 40.9% | 31.5% | -9.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.1% | 10 | 5-4-1 | 55.0% | 53.6% | 50.2% | +0.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.7% | 9 | 5-3-1 | 61.1% | 57.7% | 58.7% | +4.0 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.0% | 8 | 2-4-2 | 37.5% | 41.7% | 36.4% | -6.5 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.6% | 4 | 3-0-1 | 87.5% | 68.8% | 62.7% | +8.1 |
| Water Fractal | 2.9% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 38.7% | -8.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.0% | -5.8 |
| Wind Chess | 2.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.0% | -4.7 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.2% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 62.2% | +9.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 1.8% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 58.5% | +6.3 |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 1.8% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 33.9% | -12.0 |
| Slimes | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.2 |
| Water Allies | 1.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.7% | -4.2 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.4% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 67.6% | +13.1 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.1 |
| Arcane | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.7 |
| Fire Suited | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.6% | +18.6 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.1 |
| Fire Arcane | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.4 |
| Fire Exia | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Rai | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.4% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 55.9% | +5.6 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.4% | -23.4 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slice & Dice | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.5 |
| Water Umbra Alice | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.4% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 55.5% | +5.2 |
| Wind Byakko | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.9% | +9.4 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 13 from this event
The 13 public Wind Shadowstrike decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 36 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 36 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavenly Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Innervate Agility | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Veiling Breeze | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Unmake Duality | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| The Looking Glass | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Spirelle, Schwartz Queen | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Shadowreaver | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Dream Fairy | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Penumbral Waltz | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lost Providence | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Eternal Magistrate | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Umbra Sight | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nocturne's Oblivion | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Calming Breeze | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aesan Protector | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fairy Whispers | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Abnegation | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mastermind Scheme | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blackmarket Broker | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tempest Downfall | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zephyr | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |