Fire Crux LorraineTier 1
at Ascent Manila 2026
decks
13
(4.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
113
57-47-9
overall winrate
54.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.3%
avg ELO -1.2 per match
expected value
48.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
43.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1371
· median 1355
· range 1137–1559
(13 pilots with an ELO rating)
1061
Q1 1211
Q3 1431
1730
31% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
8% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.5% | 20 | 5-12-3 | 32.5% | 35.4% | 24.5% | -9.8 |
| Fire Oblation | 9.4% | 11 | 2-8-1 | 22.7% | 30.0% | 21.2% | -12.6 |
| Water Aetherwing | 8.0% | 5 | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 38.9% | 30.9% | -11.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.9% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 36.8% | -7.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.8% | 9 | 8-1-0 | 88.9% | 76.9% | 75.0% | +11.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.1% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 57.7% | +4.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.7% | 9 | 3-5-1 | 38.9% | 42.3% | 41.3% | -4.0 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.0% | 8 | 4-2-2 | 62.5% | 58.3% | 47.2% | -1.4 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.6% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 53.1% | +1.8 |
| Water Fractal | 2.9% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 73.3% | +17.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 29.6% | -19.5 |
| Wind Chess | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +14.0 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 1.8% | 6 | 5-1-0 | 83.3% | 70.0% | 72.9% | +12.2 |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.8% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 50.2% | +0.1 |
| Water Genbu | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.5% | -12.0 |
| Slimes | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.5% | +18.3 |
| Water Allies | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.5% | -16.8 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +10.9 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.5% | +4.3 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 1.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.0% | +12.4 |
| Wind Allies | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 56.2% | +6.0 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.0% | -19.2 |
| Arcane | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | -15.9 |
| Fire Suited | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.7% | +4.3 |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.2% | +22.7 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 72.3% | +21.4 |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.1 |
| Fire Arcane | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Rai | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.4% | +7.0 |
| Water Neos | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slice & Dice | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Alice | 0.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.9% | -5.0 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
