Fire Crux MageTier 1
at Ascent Manila 2026
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.5% | 17 | 6-10-1 | 38.2% | 40.5% | 37.3% | -5.0 |
| Fire Oblation | 9.4% | 11 | 7-4-0 | 63.6% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +4.2 |
| Water Aetherwing | 8.0% | 14 | 9-4-1 | 67.9% | 63.9% | 64.2% | +5.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.9% | 12 | 3-8-1 | 29.2% | 34.4% | 41.9% | -3.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.8% | 8 | 5-3-0 | 62.5% | 58.3% | 59.5% | +4.6 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.7% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 42.3% | -4.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.7% | 10 | 4-5-1 | 45.0% | 46.4% | 49.8% | -0.1 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.0% | 10 | 5-3-2 | 60.0% | 57.1% | 53.9% | +1.8 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.6% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 42.0% | -7.7 |
| Water Fractal | 2.9% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 68.8% | +12.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.9% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 45.2% | -3.1 |
| Wind Chess | 2.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 67.3% | +16.6 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.2% | -2.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 1.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.9% | -1.1 |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.1% | -9.4 |
| Water Genbu | 1.8% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 64.2% | +10.6 |
| Slimes | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +8.1 |
| Water Allies | 1.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 41.0% | -8.6 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.4% | +0.4 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.6% | -7.1 |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.3% | -1.6 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.0 |
| Arcane | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.2 |
| Fire Suited | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.4% | +19.9 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.7% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 37.7% | -11.8 |
| Fire Arcane | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.7% | +18.7 |
| Fire Polkhawk | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Rai | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.8% | +15.6 |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.3% | +19.6 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.4% | +18.2 |
| Water Slice & Dice | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.7 |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Alice | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.2% | +16.4 |
| Wind Arcane | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.8% | +9.3 |
| Wind Byakko | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.8% | -18.0 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.7 |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 14 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 42 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 42 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Protect Her At All Costs | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Palvor Sword | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Sable Remnant | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nimue, Cursed Touch | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Reprogram | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Prismatic Edge | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expose Darkness | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Return to the Archive | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unmake Duality | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sacred Engulfment | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flared Iridescence | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |