Fire Luxem AssassinTier 1
at Ascent Manila 2026
decks
19
(6.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
180
96-69-15
overall winrate
57.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.7%
avg ELO +0.9 per match
expected value
55.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1442
· median 1461
· range 1102–1685
(19 pilots with an ELO rating)
1061
Q1 1211
Q3 1431
1730
58% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
5% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.5% | 25 | 12-11-2 | 52.0% | 51.7% | 55.1% | +1.9 |
| Fire Oblation | 9.4% | 20 | 11-6-3 | 62.5% | 60.4% | 53.6% | +1.4 |
| Water Aetherwing | 8.0% | 14 | 6-7-1 | 46.4% | 47.2% | 43.7% | -2.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.8% | 7 | 4-3-0 | 57.1% | 54.5% | 50.4% | +0.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.1% | 12 | 8-3-1 | 70.8% | 65.6% | 58.1% | +3.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.7% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 63.2% | +7.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.7% | 17 | 6-10-1 | 38.2% | 40.5% | 35.7% | -5.7 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.0% | 10 | 5-4-1 | 55.0% | 53.6% | 53.9% | +1.8 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.6% | 7 | 4-3-0 | 57.1% | 54.5% | 35.8% | -7.1 |
| Water Fractal | 2.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.9% | +16.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.9% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 72.8% | +17.0 |
| Wind Chess | 2.5% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 59.6% | +7.2 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.2% | 5 | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 38.9% | 23.2% | -15.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 1.8% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 36.1% | -8.9 |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.8% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 26.3% | -17.7 |
| Water Genbu | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.4% | +23.0 |
| Slimes | 1.4% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 57.2% | +5.4 |
| Water Allies | 1.4% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 71.0% | +15.7 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.4% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 54.4% | +2.3 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.1% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 68.5% | +11.9 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.2 |
| Wind Allies | 1.1% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 74.3% | +18.2 |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.0% | +11.5 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.1% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 58.2% | +6.1 |
| Arcane | 0.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.0% | -16.3 |
| Fire Suited | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.0% | +8.0 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.4% | +5.4 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.7% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.5% | -3.4 |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Rai | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.4 |
| Fire Slimes | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.4% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.8% | -5.0 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.4% | +7.1 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.0% | +4.7 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slice & Dice | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Alice | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.9% | +6.2 |
| Wind Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.6% | -11.8 |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 0.4% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 57.8% | +5.8 |
Decklists · 19 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 6 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 6 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Juggle Knives, Waited Accord, Return to the Archive. Losers more often ran: Planted Explosive, Fast Cure, Insignia of the Corhazi.
Juggle Knives
Winning decks ran 2.8
copies on average,
losing decks 1.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Waited Accord
Winning decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
losing decks 0.3.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Return to the Archive
Winning decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
losing decks 2.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Prismspire Scepter
Winning decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Annul Spell
Winning decks ran 1.3
copies on average,
losing decks 1.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Topsy Decree
Winning decks ran 3.3
copies on average,
losing decks 3.2.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Planted Explosive
Losing decks ran 1.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.7.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Fast Cure
Losing decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
winning decks 0.5.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Insignia of the Corhazi
Losing decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Orb of Sealing
Losing decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Resolute Stand
Losing decks ran 2.7
copies on average,
winning decks 2.5.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Under Fire
Losing decks ran 0.3
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Show all 50 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 33 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Planted Explosive | -0.67 | 0 | 4 | 1 | |
| Juggle Knives | +0.67 | 4 | 0 | 2 | |
| Waited Accord | +0.50 | 4 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.50 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Nefarious Timepiece | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Excalibur, Cleansing Light | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 4 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 4 | |
| Insignia of the Corhazi | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Wisdom's Reprise | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Thieving Cut | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| Uncover the Plot | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |
| Return to the Archive | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Under Fire | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |
| Prismspire Scepter | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Lost Providence | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |
| Exploit Vulnerability | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 5 | |
| Fiery Interference | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Ducal Seal | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 4 | |
| Annul Spell | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Topsy Decree | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| Smoke Out | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tabula of Salvage | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Disenchant | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Exorcise Curses | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sovereign Sanctuary | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tricastles of Lucenia | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incandescent Reliquary | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unmake Duality | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Oneiric Key | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vanish from Sight | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Scry the Skies | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 4 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stolen Chance | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |