Fire SuzakuTier 2
at Ascent Manila 2026
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.5% | 7 | 5-1-1 | 78.6% | 68.2% | 64.5% | +7.3 |
| Fire Oblation | 9.4% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 32.7% | -10.0 |
| Water Aetherwing | 8.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.4% | -25.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.9% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 63.9% | +8.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.1% | +1.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.7% | 6 | 1-5-0 | 16.7% | 30.0% | 27.1% | -12.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.7% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 41.5% | -6.3 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.0% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.7% | +0.4 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.3% | +18.1 |
| Water Fractal | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.9% | +17.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.9% | 5 | 5-0-0 | 100.0% | 77.8% | 71.4% | +12.3 |
| Wind Chess | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.6% | -24.6 |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.3% | -18.7 |
| Water Genbu | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.3 |
| Slimes | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.8% | +9.3 |
| Water Allies | 1.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.6% | -0.4 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.9% | +22.2 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.0% | -11.5 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.1 |
| Wind Allies | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arcane | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.0% | +19.2 |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.7% | +16.0 |
| Fire Arcane | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Rai | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.2% | -23.7 |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slice & Dice | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.4% | -25.0 |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Alice | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.2 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Fire Suzaku decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 23 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 23 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orb of Sealing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| March Hare, Mottled Host | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gilded Pyre | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignis Deus | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fatestone of Unrelenting | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Surging Bolt | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cinder Geyser | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Demolition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flamewreath Call | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shatter the Brittle | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Suzaku's Command | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |