Fire Firebloom BurnTier 2
at Ascent Manila 2026
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.5% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.7% | +4.1 |
| Fire Oblation | 9.4% | 9 | 4-4-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.7% | +0.8 |
| Water Aetherwing | 8.0% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.1% | +3.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.9% | 7 | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 64.2% | +7.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.8% | 8 | 4-4-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.5% | +3.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.1% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 58.0% | +7.7 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.7% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 46.9% | -1.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.7% | 4 | 0-3-1 | 12.5% | 31.2% | 37.3% | -8.1 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.0% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 29.8% | -13.0 |
| Water Fractal | 2.9% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 32.8% | -12.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 59.6% | +9.2 |
| Wind Chess | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.3% | -18.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.7% | -18.1 |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.2 |
| Water Genbu | 1.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.9% | +6.6 |
| Slimes | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 31.4% | -17.8 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.7% | -5.3 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.4% | +24.6 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 66.6% | +26.6 |
| Wind Allies | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.1% | -4.6 |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arcane | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 66.0% | +25.6 |
| Fire Suited | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.1 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 60.0% | +9.6 |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.2 |
| Fire Arcane | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.7% | +23.6 |
| Fire Exia | 0.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.7% | -2.1 |
| Fire Polkhawk | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.9% | +17.5 |
| Fire Rai | 0.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 75.7% | +24.7 |
| Fire Slimes | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.1 |
| Water Slice & Dice | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Alice | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.1% | +24.2 |
| Wind Arcane | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.7% | -2.1 |
| Wind Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.8% | -17.9 |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 10 from this event
The 10 public Fire Firebloom Burn decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 7 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 7 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Obscured Offering | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Infernal Vessel | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |