Fire Umbra CielTier 3
at Ascent Manila 2026
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.3% | -7.6 |
| Fire Oblation | 9.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.6% | -5.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.8% | -22.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.4% | -18.6 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.6% | -19.8 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arcane | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Rai | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.6% | -23.1 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slice & Dice | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Alice | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 3 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 3 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Servile Possessions | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lamentation's Toll | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sinistre Stab | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |