Fire AggroTier 1
at Ascent Taipei
decks
26
(10.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
174
92-75-7
overall winrate
54.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
56.6%
avg ELO +2.2 per match
expected value
52.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1306
· median 1298
· range 1085–1518
(26 pilots with an ELO rating)
959
Q1 1176
Q3 1393
1730
35% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
27% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 13.4% | 26 | 15-10-1 | 59.6% | 58.3% | 59.9% | +3.7 |
| Wind Allies | 11.3% | 28 | 11-16-1 | 41.1% | 42.2% | 43.3% | -2.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.9% | 18 | 11-7-0 | 61.1% | 59.1% | 63.8% | +5.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 13 | 5-7-1 | 42.3% | 44.1% | 47.4% | -1.1 |
| Fire Arcane | 5.9% | 15 | 9-6-0 | 60.0% | 57.9% | 59.6% | +3.9 |
| Fire Slimes | 5.9% | 11 | 8-3-0 | 72.7% | 66.7% | 63.4% | +5.8 |
| Water Allies | 4.2% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 27.7% | -16.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.8% | 7 | 3-3-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.5% | +0.8 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 3.8% | 11 | 6-4-1 | 59.1% | 56.7% | 62.6% | +5.5 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 3.4% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 59.6% | +6.2 |
| Fire Erupting | 2.1% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 37.8% | -6.5 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.1% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 44.3% | -4.3 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.7% | 5 | 5-0-0 | 100.0% | 77.8% | 80.3% | +17.4 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.7% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 29.5% | -15.3 |
| Water Neos | 1.3% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 65.0% | +8.6 |
| Wind Slimes | 1.3% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 34.1% | -11.8 |
| Fire Neos | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.6% | +23.3 |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.6% | +23.3 |
| Wind Overlord | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.2% | -10.9 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.7% | +12.2 |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.6% | +4.1 |
| Arcane | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arisanna | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.9% | +9.5 |
| Fire Shadowstrike | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 69.5% | +18.8 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.9% | -17.7 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tonoris | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.0% | +17.6 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tristan | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.8% | +15.6 |
| Wind Zander | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.0% | -20.9 |
Decklists · 26 from this event
The 26 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 13 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Stalwart Shieldmate, Clumsy Apprentice, Rending Flames. Losers more often ran: Sword of Seeking, Water Resonance Bauble, Wind Resonance Bauble.
Stalwart Shieldmate
Winning decks ran 1.1
copies on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 13 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 8.
Clumsy Apprentice
Winning decks ran 3.5
copies on average,
losing decks 3.2.
Of 13 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 6.
Rending Flames
Winning decks ran 3.7
copies on average,
losing decks 3.5.
Of 13 mirrors: the winner ran more in
6, the loser ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 4.
Fireball
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 13 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 9.
Corhazi Arsonist
Winning decks ran 1.5
copies on average,
losing decks 1.4.
Of 13 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 5.
Assassin's Ripper
Winning decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 13 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 7.
Sword of Seeking
Losing decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
winning decks 0.6.
Of 13 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 7.
Water Resonance Bauble
Losing decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
winning decks 0.7.
Of 13 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 8.
Wind Resonance Bauble
Losing decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
winning decks 0.7.
Of 13 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 8.
Reduce to Ash
Losing decks ran 1.4
copies on average,
winning decks 0.8.
Of 13 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 5.
Fire Resonance Bauble
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.7.
Of 13 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 7.
Rococo, Explosive Maven
Losing decks ran 2.8
copies on average,
winning decks 2.6.
Of 13 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 5.
Show all 98 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 78 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sword of Seeking | -0.31 | 1 | 5 | 7 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.23 | 1 | 4 | 8 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.23 | 4 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.23 | 1 | 4 | 8 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | +0.23 | 5 | 2 | 6 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.23 | 6 | 3 | 4 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -0.15 | 3 | 5 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.15 | 2 | 4 | 7 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | -0.15 | 3 | 5 | 4 | |
| Surging Bolt | -0.15 | 4 | 6 | 1 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.15 | 1 | 3 | 9 | |
| Fireball | +0.15 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Arsonist | +0.15 | 5 | 3 | 0 | |
| Vicious Slice | -0.15 | 4 | 6 | 2 | |
| Lurking Assailant | -0.15 | 4 | 6 | 1 | |
| Crimson Tear | -0.15 | 2 | 4 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | -0.15 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Assassin's Ripper | +0.15 | 4 | 2 | 4 | |
| Kingdom Informant | +0.15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gawain, Chivalrous Thief | +0.15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +0.15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Manic Zealot | -0.15 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.08 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | -0.08 | 3 | 4 | 1 | |
| Planted Explosive | -0.08 | 4 | 5 | 3 | |
| Spurn to Ash | +0.08 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.08 | 3 | 4 | 4 | |
| Forgelight Blade | +0.08 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Channeling Stone | +0.08 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | -0.08 | 1 | 2 | 9 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.08 | 2 | 1 | 8 | |
| Creative Shock | +0.08 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |
| Flame Sweep | -0.08 | 3 | 4 | 0 | |
| Embersong | +0.08 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | -0.08 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |
| Erupting Rhapsody | +0.08 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +0.08 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.08 | 2 | 1 | 9 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | +0.08 | 3 | 2 | 5 | |
| Tempered Steel | +0.08 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Mark the Target | -0.08 | 4 | 5 | 2 | |
| Woodland Squirrels | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Underhanded | +0.08 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Gloamspire, Black Market | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inspiring Call | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.08 | 5 | 4 | 1 | |
| Innervate Fury | -0.08 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Powered Bishop | +0.08 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Charged Mannequin | +0.08 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mercurial Heart | +0.08 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | +0.08 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Coating Oil | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Sharpening Stone | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Veteran Blazebearer | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | -0.08 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | -0.08 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | -0.08 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +0.08 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cell Handler | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Focused Flames | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Strapping Conscript | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Excalibur, Cursed Sword | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blitz Mage | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fanatical Devotee | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bauble of Abundance | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Juggle Knives | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | +0.00 | 4 | 4 | 5 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |
| Increasing Danger | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 11 | |
| Sword of Adversity | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Captivating Cutthroat | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 6 | |
| Sable Remnant | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 6 | |
| Varuckan Soulknife | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 6 | |
| Hone by Fire | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 6 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.00 | 4 | 4 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |
| Blazing Throw | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 11 | |
| Fiery Momentum | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |
| Ignited Stab | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Courier | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 6 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 6 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 3 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Orb of Regret | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cemetery Sentry | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rai, Spellcrafter | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Discordia, Harp of Malice | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Bowman | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |