Wind Crux LorraineTier 2
at Ascent Taipei
decks
4
(1.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
33
16-13-4
overall winrate
54.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.9%
avg ELO +1.0 per match
expected value
52.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1421
· median 1424
· range 1261–1574
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
959
Q1 1176
Q3 1393
1730
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 13.4% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 58.3% | +4.8 |
| Wind Allies | 11.3% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.0% | +2.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 10.9% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 70.5% | +15.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.5% | -1.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.1% | -1.8 |
| Fire Arcane | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.7 |
| Fire Slimes | 5.9% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 57.0% | +5.2 |
| Water Allies | 4.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 32.6% | -16.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.2% | -17.4 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 3.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.3% | -1.2 |
| Fire Erupting | 2.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 67.6% | +16.9 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | +15.9 |
| Water Neos | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 1.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.4% | -5.8 |
| Fire Neos | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 33.3% | -26.7 |
| Wind Overlord | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.0% | -19.2 |
| Arcane | 0.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.2% | -10.9 |
| Fire Arisanna | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Shadowstrike | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tonoris | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.7% | +18.8 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tristan | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Zander | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Wind Crux Lorraine decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
